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A pair of defensive-minded teams collide in the AFC Championship game when the New England Patriots (16-3) head to Denver to take on the Broncos (15-3) on Sunday.
New England narrowly missed the top seed in the AFC after its dramatic turnaround this season. The Patriots used stingy defense to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in their Wild Card matchup, and the AFC East champions followed that up with four interceptions against Houston to defeat the Texans 28-16.
The Broncos earned their spot in this game by defeating the Buffalo Bills in a 33-30 overtime thriller last week. That win was costly for Denver as starting quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury, leaving backup Jarrett Stidham as the team’s signal-caller for Sunday’s game.
Can Stidham provide the Broncos with enough offense to overcome the Broncos on Sunday? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player props for the AFC Championship game.
In last week’s AFC Divisional round, New England quarterback Drake Maye wasn’t asked to provide much offense. He finished with 189 total offensive yards, completing just 16 of his 27 pass attempts.
The prior week was a different story as he picked apart the Chargers, throwing for 268 and running for another 66 yards in his team’s victory. Before Josh Allen and the Bills picked apart Denver’s defense, I would have expected the Patriots to use the mobile Maye outside the pocket, giving him an option to run or pass.
Buffalo’s performance should give bettors conviction that New England will attempt to move the ball through the air, allowing Maye to cover this passing prop wager.
Stidham hasn’t started a contest since 2023 during Russell Wilson’s final days with the Broncos. It’s hard to gauge what type of performance bettors should see from Denver, especially under these unique circumstances.
When the quarterback does throw, individuals should expect Courtland Sutton to be his target. The veteran wide receiver finished with 74 receptions, 1,017 yards, and seven touchdowns in 2025, and he was targeted nine or more times in nine outings for the Broncos.
Few teams were better against the pass than the Patriots in 2025. New England allowed just under 194 passing yards per outing. While Stidham may fall under this total, expect the quarterback to look Sutton’s way early and often. He’ll cover this receiving prop total in the AFC Championship game.
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson earned the lion’s share of the backfield work against the Texans, rushing 16 times for 70 yards in the 28-16 victory. He also caught all four targets for 11 yards last weekend.
The Broncos were second in the NFL during the regular season, allowing just over 91 rushing yards per game to opponents. Expect Denver to sell out on the Patriots’ rushing attack to force Maye to beat them. That’s why bettors should take Stevenson to finish below his rushing prop total on Sunday.
The spread for this Sunday’s game would be dramatically different if Nix were in the lineup. Instead, oddsmakers are discounting the Broncos and head coach Sean Payton due to their starting quarterback’s injury.
There’s no question Denver will miss him. But the Broncos have overcome multiple adversities this season to reach this game. While New England should prevail, bettors should not underestimate Payton’s coaching ability. Take the home team to keep this close, losing 23-20 on Sunday.