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Two of the NFL’s top defenses collide on Sunday when the Houston Texans (13-5) head north to face the New England Patriots (15-3) in the AFC Divisional round.
Houston was among the league’s best in all defensive categories in 2025, keeping opponents under 20 points in 15 of their 18 games (including their postseason 30-6 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week).
That’s nearly the same for New England after the Patriots kept opponents in 12 of their 18 outings from scoring more than 20 points. New England ranks among the top 10 in every defensive category after their dominant regular-season performance.
With a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line, who should individuals expect to win this matchup? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player props for Sunday’s matchup between the Texans and Patriots.
Quarterback Drake Maye has enjoyed a potential MVP season. The second-year starter completed 72 percent of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight picks in 2025. He added 450 rushing yards on 103 attempts, scoring four more times for the Patriots.
He’ll face one of his toughest tasks this year when the Texans come into town. Houston is a top-five rushing defense, keeping teams to less than 95 yards per game on average. They also rank sixth against the pass, holding opponents on average to less than 185 yards per contest.
Maye piloted one of the bettors rushing attacks this season, and his team finished with more than 2,100 rushing yards in 2025. Expect the Patriots to attack Houston on the ground, and bettors should not expect the quarterback to finish above the 225-yard mark on Sunday.
For the third consecutive year, quarterback C.J. Stroud has led the Texans to the playoffs. His team has won their opening-round contest every season, including Monday night’s drubbing of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Houston will need him to succeed against the Patriots. In the regular season, New England held opponents to less than 200 passing yards on average. Bettors should expect Stroud to keep Houston in this game with his arm, and he’ll surpass the 212.5-yard mark to cover his passing prop.
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is looking to join an exclusive club. Only a handful of players were on teams that won a college football championship and immediately won a Super Bowl during their NFL debut season. Henderson can add his name to that list after leading the Buckeyes to a national championship last year.
The Patriots will need their sensational runner to win this game. Henderson finished his season with 911 rushing yards on 180 attempts, scoring nine touchdowns for New England.
He’s finished with more than 40 rushing yards against only one team that made the playoffs, however. Expect that trend to continue as Henderson fails to cover his rushing prop total.
The weather isn’t expected to play a factor on Sunday when these two teams meet. Forecasts are calling for snow late Saturday night, but 40-degree temperatures will prevent this from being a wintry wonderland.
Still, warm-weather teams struggle in cold-weather environments. Since 2000, teams that primarily play in warm-weather cities or domes are just 2-15 in the playoffs when the temperatures drop below freezing. That gives New England an edge for this contest.
The best bet, however, is that the defensive-first teams will keep this a low-scoring affair. Bettors should take the under on the 41.5-point combined total score, assuming a final with both teams scoring less than 20 points in this game.