Let's get to cranking on some Anytime TD props for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. It's been a remarkable season so far. Our team is sitting at 40-60 for a profit of 10.19 units, so we're looking to add to the ledger. That just goes to show you the power of plus money plays!
Let's keep the good times rolling. Enjoy the action and best of luck with your bets, folks! Here's what's on tap for this weekend.
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LAR at CHI - 6:30 PM EST (Sunday)
I’m taking Kyren Williams at +130 because this matchup is the perfect setup for him to find the end zone, even if the Rams do what they do best through the air. Of course, he can get in on that action as well, but more on that in a minute.
We’re talking about the top scoring offense in football at over 30 PPG, and with Stafford throwing for 46 TDs, defenses have no choice but to play light boxes and protect against the pass — and the Bears will be keeping an eye on Puka Nacua. That’s exactly where Kyren benefits.
Chicago gives up chunk plays through the air at a 7.6 YPA and ranks near the bottom of the NFL in air yards allowed, which means sustained drives and plenty of red-zone trips for the Rams. In reality, Kyren doesn’t need 25 carries to cash — instead, he just needs one drive inside the 10, and that’s where McVay still trusts him the most. Even last week, he found the end zone through the air in a playoff game, which shows he’s still one of the most dynamic players on the field.
With the Bears relying on turnovers to survive and the Rams built to pressure defenses nonstop, I really like Williams to clean up one of those drives and punch it in at plus money.
LAR at CHI: 6:30 PM EST on Sunday
This one's kind of a long shot, but I feel pretty good about it. Odunze is still working his way back from injury, so most projections only have him hauling in 3 receptions or so in this one. The good news is that Rome was on the field for 69% of Da Bears' snaps last week, and I expect that to increase here against the Rams.
Keep in mind, Odunze scored 6 TDs in only 12 games of action during the regular season. That tells me that there's plenty of value in this +280 price. Some of the larger shops are pricing this around +250, so we'll scoop up the extra 30 cents per dollar and take our chances.
The Rams are a good coverage team, so that's not ideal for us. However, about 1/3 of Odunze's snaps will be against Emmanuel Forbes, who ranks just 74th out of 112 corners in the league. Let's play Rome 'Wasn't Built In' Odunze at a nice juicy number. Good luck, folks!
BUF at DEN - 4:30 PM EST (Saturday)
Facing a Bills defense that is 28th in rushing yards allowed and 31 in yards per carry allowed, I expect R.J. Harvey to be one of the more popular anytime TD bets this week. That said, we're not here to give out -130 picks so I'm looking for Bo Nix to find the end zone in the Divisional Round.
Not only have the Bills struggled against opposing RBs, but they've allowed the 5th most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. They've been especially bad against mobile quarterbacks, allowing 205 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 23 carries.
If Harvey scores, it may have to come on a big play because he's averaged just 3.3 YPC over the last 9 weeks. If you remove explosive plays from that stretch, his YPC drops under 2.5. Look for Payton to dial up some designed runs for Nix when the Broncos find their way into the Red Zone on Saturday, allowing us to cash this +350 ticket.
LAR at CHI - 6:30 PM EST (Sunday)
If you've been watching the NFL over the last 3 weeks, there's no doubt you've heard the name Colston Loveland. Over those three weeks, the rookie tight end has 24 catches for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns, quickly becoming a favorite go-to receiving option for Caleb Williams. His size and speed make him a nightmare for defenses to match up against.
While last week he didn't find the end zone on a touchdown, he did on a two-point conversion, and I expect that to change this week. The Rams have, without a doubt, been the best offense in the NFL over the course of the season. Their defense, outside of the d-line, is not the best.
The Bears have their full arsenal of receivers, plus two tight ends who can catch the ball. It's going to be cold, so many may shy away from pass catchers on Sunday, but Loveland doesn't seem to be fazed by it.
The kid is from Idaho, played his college ball at Michigan, and has come up with big catches for Chicago in cold weather already this season. I'm just thankful I won't be there freezing with them.