Let's get to cranking on some Anytime TD props for NFL Wildcard Weekend. It's been a remarkable season so far. Our team is sitting at 39-57 for a profit of 11.14 units, so we're looking to add to the ledger.
Let's keep the good times rolling. Happy New Year and best of luck with your bets, folks! Here's what's on tap for this weekend.
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BUF at JAX - 1:00 PM EST (Sunday)
I’m taking Trevor Lawrence in this weekend’s Wild Card game because everything about the spot points to him making a play himself in the red zone, and when you break it down, it’s easy to see why.
Jacksonville is averaging close to 34 points during this 8-game win streak, and Lawrence has, without a doubt, been a huge part of that, accounting for 29 total TDs on the season in the air and 9 of them coming on the ground. When the field shrinks, he’s not hesitant to tuck it and go, especially on bootlegs and broken plays where defenses turn their backs, and this defense is going to do just that. He may not have elite RB numbers, but with 359 rushing yards and averaging 4.4 YPC, he’s in the mix.
The biggest takeaway here is that Buffalo’s defense is banged up at linebacker, ranks near the bottom against the run, and has struggled containing mobile QBs when pressure breaks down. If the Bills succeed at slowing Etienne early or overcommit to him near the goal line, which they probably will, Lawrence is exactly the type of QB who punishes that with his legs. He recognizes opportunities better than most quarterbacks, and he seizes them.
In a tight, high-stakes game like this one where every possession matters, I expect Jacksonville to lean into what’s been working — and Lawrence finding the end zone himself feels very much in play. At +185, I’ll take that bet all day long.
LAR at CAR - 4:30 PM EST (Saturday)
Christmas may be over, but the good ol' boys over at Bet365 are still giving out presents. I love this price here on Corum, who is in the +150 to +160 range at all other sportsbooks in the market. Sure, Kyren Williams will get lots of carries, but I project Corum to get 10-12 totes of the rock himself with this double-digit point spread.
Corum has really come on in the latter part of the season for the Rams. The former Michigan star has scored 4 TDs over his last 5 games, and he gets a favorable matchup against Carolina. The Panthers rank just 22nd in yards per rush allowed, and Corum scored against them back in late November.
I could see the Rams building an early lead in this one. If that happens, Corum could enjoy an even larger workload. That could result in a garbage time TD, which would be just fine with me. Good luck, sports betting family!
SF at PHI - 4:30 PM EST (Sunday)
I'm rolling with Dallas Goedert at +205 for my Wild Card Round anytime TD. Goedert enters the playoffs with 4 TDs in his last 3 games and 11 TDs in 15 games this season. He has been Hurts' most consistent red zone target this season with 10 touchdowns on 15 targets.
His matchup with the 49ers is arguably the best on the board for the Wild Card Round. San Francisco has allowed the 6th most TDs to opposing tight ends this season. That number gets even worse when you zoom in on matchups against offenses that utilize the tight end position.
Loveland, Fannin, McBride, and Parkinson all had big games and touchdowns against the 49ers in the second half of the season. These picks don't get any easier as the games get tighter in the playoffs, so I'll gladly take the low-hanging fruit and +205 odds with Goedert this weekend.
GB at CHI - 8:00 PM EST (Saturday)
If the forecast from two days ago had held true, I might have gone a different route. However, there's nothing consistent about winter in the Midwest, and what was a mid-30's with mild winds has turned into what could be a blizzard.
Monangai hasn't found the end zone a ton this season, but when he has, it's been in games that have been in inclement weather. I expect Chicago to heavily feature the run game, an area in which they excel, against the Packers, who, without Micah Parsons, are near the bottom in the NFL.
I really see both running backs from Chicago finding the end zone. I think they'll need it to keep up with Green Bay. When Chicago sustains drives, Monangai gets carries inside the 25, and I'm looking forward to seeing him blasting plastic off the helmet of another Packers defender.