Happy New Year, sports betting family. We dropped our player prop on Puka Nacua on Monday Night Football, but we've been pretty doggone hot overall lately. Let's see if we can keep things rolling here to close out the regular season.
The Steelers will host the Ravens on Sunday Night Football in a battle to decide the AFC North and a playoff spot. Both teams have had their fair share of highs and lows this season, but all can be forgiven with a victory in this rivalry game.
Good luck and enjoy the game! I've got a best bet on this titanic tilt below that'll hopefully build your bankroll. Let's get into the details.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Baltimore -3 on the lookahead line a few days ago. A ton of sharp money has come in on the Ravens, so much so that the line is now sitting at Baltimore -3.5 at the time of this writing.
As for the game total, there's been a large appetite for the Under in the market so far. The line opened at 43.5, and most shops are now offering 40.5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger on any bet.
Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable with the back contusion, but I'd guess he's probably going to play here with the Ravens' playoff hopes on the line. Even if he can't go, Baltimore has one clear path to victory in this spot: Hand the Ball to Derrick Henry!
Henry, the former Heisman winner from Alabama, has put together another dominant season for Baltimore. Henry has run for 1469 yards and 16 TDs, and without him, the Ravens' playoff hopes would have died a long time ago. I wouldn't be surprised if OC Todd Monken hands the ball to Henry 30+ times in this one.
The Ravens' defense has been a huge disappointment this season, as they're decent against the run but less than stellar defending the pass. Baltimore has also done a terrible job of rushing the passer, so Aaron Rodgers could have all day to throw.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has been legendary as an underdog, so much so that even casual fans know about his stellar record in that role. However, he'll need the offense to play much better than it did a week ago against Cleveland. That unit will have to find success without star WR DK Metcalf, who's still suspended after punching a fan in Detroit a couple of weeks ago.
Aaron Rodgers comes across as a crotchety old man at times, but he still knows how to run an offense. The future Hall of Famer has thrown for 3028 yards and 23 TDs this season, and we know that he's no stranger to big games. Without Metcalf in the fold, I'd expect lots of short passes to Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Pittsburgh is hoping to get star edge rusher TJ Watt back this week, as Tomlin said he's "optimistic" about Watt's chances of playing. That would be a huge boost to a defense that ranks out as pretty average against both the run and the pass.
BAL vs PIT: 8:20 PM ET on January 4
The Mike Tomlin in an underdog role spot has made me a lot of cash over the years, and now that this one's over a field goal, I've got to play the Steelers. This is also the ultimate buy-low opportunity on Pittsburgh because they lost in embarrassing fashion to Cleveland last week. It's also a good sell-high on Baltimore, which blew out Green Bay at Lambeau behind a stellar performance from Derrick Henry.
Even still, I think the Steelers will find ways to make this a close game. This Baltimore team is just 5-8 ATS this season as a favorite, so we have that trend working for us in this spot. There's not a whole lot to like about Pittsburgh in the metrics, but I love how well their defense tightens up in the red zone.
The Steelers rank 6th in red zone defense, which should play well against a Ravens offense that ranks a pitiful 29th. Give me the points here for a couple of units, and let's play 0.3 units on the moneyline at +170. Good luck, my friends!
Trends I Love:
PIT is 5-2 ATS vs BAL over their last 7 meetings
BAL is 0-4 SU against Top 10 teams this season
PIT is 2-2 vs Top 10 teams this season