Happy New Year, sports betting family. We hope you had a fantastic holiday with some friends, family, and football. We finished 2025 with a total record of 555-465 for a profit of +35.98 units. It wasn't as stellar as 2024's +76-unit performance, but any year in the green is a good year.
The Bucs will host the Panthers on Saturday, January 3, to kick off NFL Week 18. Both of these teams have been dreadful to watch at times, but hey, both still have a shot at the NFC South crown.
Good luck and enjoy the game! I've got a best bet on this matchup below that'll hopefully build your bankroll. Let's get into the details.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 1/11/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/4/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Tampa Bay -3.5 on the lookahead line a few days ago. A ton of sharp money has come in on Carolina, so much so that the line is now sitting at Tampa Bay -2.5 at the time of this writing.
As for the game total, there's been a small appetite for the Under in the market so far. The line opened at 45.5, and most shops are now offering 43.5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger on any bet.
Things are pretty simple for the Panthers in this spot. If they win, they lock down the NFC South and punch their tickets to the playoffs. If they lose, they'll need the Falcons to beat the Saints on Sunday.
The key to a Carolina victory in this one will be how well QB Bryce Young plays. The former Alabama star has been fantastic in the Panthers' wins and horrific in their losses. Young has thrown for 2745 yards and 21 TDs this season, and he's gotten lots of help from RB Rico Dowdle (1066 rushing yds, 6 TDs) and WR Tet McMillan (929 rec yds, 7 TDs).
Carolina's defense has struggled at times against both the run and the pass, but they do a good job of stiffening up in the red zone (13th). That could be a nice edge for them against a Tampa Bay team that has really struggled on offense in that area of the field (21st).
Tampa Bay's path to the playoffs is much more complicated. The Bucs need to win and pray that the Saints win or tie the Falcons on Sunday. Gee whiz, that 'meaningless' New Orleans vs Atlanta game will actually mean quite a bit more than most casual fans realize.
It's been a tale of two seasons for Baker Mayfield. He looked like an MVP candidate early in the year, but he's looked lost at times over the last month. Even still, Mayfield has thrown for 3490 yards and 25 TDs. He has some nice weapons to throw to in Emeka Egbuka (930 rec yds, 6 TDs) and Mike Evans (334 rec yds, 3 TDs).
Tampa Bay's defense is nothing to write home about. They're below average against both the run and the pass. However, they do a decent job at times of rushing the passer, so Young had better keep his head on a swivel.
CAR vs TB: 4:30 PM ET on January 3
Alrighty folks, this one is ugly in a big way. Both of these teams have been unpredictable this season, but my numbers still say that the Bucs should be favored by 5.5 in this spot at home. Now that we can get this one under a field goal, I feel good enough to pull the trigger on Tampa Bay.
The Bucs have played a much tougher schedule than the Panthers (10th vs 19th according to Sagarin). We also know that the rowdy Tampa Bay crowd will give their home team a little boost. I was a little shocked that the Bucs couldn't beat the Dolphins last week, but it seems like Mayfield got his groove back a little bit.
The veteran QB threw two costly picks, but I love that he threw for 346 yards on that Miami secondary. Tampa Bay has too many weapons on offense to keep losing these one-score games. Let's lay the small number here with the Bucs. Best of luck, sports betting family!