Baltimore heads into this rematch in a prime revenge spot, having just lost to Cincinnati at home as almost 7-point favorites. Even worse, the game was on Thanksgiving, a primetime, embarrassing loss.
Now with Joe Burrow back under-center for his third straight game, the public has piled onto Cincinnati with 70%+ tickets, yet they remain the dog and 2.5-to-3-point underdogs. Is this a classic fade the public dog spot? I think so!
Now, despite Joe Burrow’s return and previous victory over the Ravens, Baltimore still rates eight spots higher in aggregate power ratings, though they have played a much softer schedule, which I think bodes well for them here. Cincinnati is coming off a brutal loss in the cold and snow, where they gave every effort to beat the Bills. Before that, they played Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh, and the Bears, all teams that can put up a fight.
Perhaps the Bengals are coming in a little more worn down, especially on defense. Baltimore currently sits 1 game behind Pittsburgh for the division lead and has dropped two straight games, both in the division. This game matters.
From a matchup standpoint, Baltimore still has edges on both sides of the ball. Looking first at Ravens defense vs Bengals offense, Cincinnati ranks 30th in rushing yards (86.5/game), 26th in passing yards (228.8/game), and 31st in yards per play (5.2/play).
That's poor efficiency for an offense facing a Baltimore defense that sits top 10 in red-zone defense, top 11 in first downs allowed, and top 15 in QB hits. Before the last two losses in which they allowed 27 and 32 points, Baltimore allowed 10, 16, 19, 6, 16, 17(to the Rams), in the six games prior.
On the other side, Ravens' offense vs Bengals' defense is an even clearer mismatch. Cincinnati ranks 32nd in rushing yards allowed (155.5/game), 32nd in yards per play allowed (6.3/play), 31st in passing yards allowed (254.9/game), and 28th in red-zone defense (64.3%). It’s no secret that the Bengals defense is bad.
One key note is that Baltimore is coming off a 200+ yard game on the ground, something they can continue to utilize this week. Baltimore brings a top 3 rushing offense (142.9/game), a top 10 unit in yards per play, and still has Lamar Jackson to make plays in big games.
If they can find more success in game 2 on the ground, they can keep Burrow and this offense with limited time of possession. Let's lay the small number here with the road team. Good luck, folks!
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -2 (-120, HardRock)
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