Welcome to Week 14, sports betting family. The 2025-26 NFL season is flying by faster than any hardcore football fan would like. As usual, we get lots of fun matchups to watch this week in the wild and crazy world of pro football.
I've found some expected value on the Saints vs Buccaneers game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, December 7th. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the game! This one could be boring to watch, but hopefully, it adds some dollars to our bottom lines. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Seahawks -7.5 on the look-ahead last week. As crazy as it may sound, some sharp money has come in on the Falcons. Most online sportsbooks now have Seattle as a 7-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a small appetite for the Over so far. The line opened at 43.5, and most shops are now offering 44.5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger.
The Saints showed a lot of fight last week against Miami. They dug themselves a big hole early on but didn't quit and nearly pulled off a big comeback in a 4-point loss. Tyler Shough threw for 239 yards and 2 TDs, and he's starting to look a little more comfortable as an NFL QB.
Even with Shough's emergence, New Orleans has been flat-out pitiful on offense this season. The Saints rank just 30th in yards per rush and 28th in yards per pass. They're also dead last in red-zone offense, so they've done themselves no favors in that regard.
The Saints' defense has been the strength of the team this season, as they rank 11th in yards per play allowed and 9th in third-down conversion percentage allowed. Cam Jordan leads the team with 6.5 sacks.
All teams are banged up this time of year, but the Bucs have had more than their fair share of tough luck injuries. The receiving corps has been decimated, as Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Chris Godwin have all missed some time. The good news is that starting RB Bucky Irving returned last week and scored a touchdown against the Cards.
Baker Mayfield has performed beautifully, even though he's been dealing with a shoulder injury himself. He's thrown for 2600 yards, 19 TDs, and has thrown just 5 picks this season. The Saints did sack him three times back on October 26th, so we'll see if the O-line can protect him a little better this time around.
Tampa's defense hasn't been that great so far this year. They're average against the run but have struggled mightily in the secondary. Safety Tykee Smith leads the Bucs with 87 tackles.
NO at TB: 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 7
Tampa Bay is a very public side this week, but contrary to popular belief, the public does win sometimes. This is more a fade of New Orleans than anything else, as they're just 2-10 this season and 1-5 on the highway. To make matters worse, they could be without Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave once again. Neither one of them practiced on Wednesday, according to the injury report.
The Saints have been atrocious in first halves all year long, as they rank dead last in my first-half power ratings. New Orleans is also just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games during the first half, and this is a tough back-to-back roadie spot for them. Tampa Bay is sitting at 7-5, and they need this win to keep their lead in the NFC South division.
Baker Mayfield was limited in practice on Wednesday, but this guy has proven to be a real gamer throughout his career. I expect the former Heisman winner to play and play well here at home. There's also a small chance that the Bucs get Mike Evans and/or Jalen McMillan back this week off of IR. Let's lay the points in the first half with Tampa Bay. Good luck, fellow sports investors!