Welcome to Week 14, sports betting family. The 2025-26 NFL season is flying by at lightning speed. As usual, we get plenty of intriguing matchups to watch this week in the wild and crazy world of pro football.
I've found some expected value on the Seahawks vs Falcons game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, December 7th. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the game! This one should be fun to watch, and hopefully, it adds some profit to our portfolios. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Seahawks -7.5 on the look-ahead last week. As crazy as it may sound, some sharp money has come in on the Falcons. Most online sportsbooks now have Seattle as a 7-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a small appetite for the Over so far. The line opened at 43.5, and most shops are now offering 44.5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger.
A lot of experts have the Seahawks power rated as the best team in the NFL, and it's easy to see why. Seattle is 9-3 on the year and has won 5 of their 6 road games. This squad has to be riding high after winning 6 of their last 7 ball games.
Sam Darnold has thrown for a ton of yardage (2,913) but the interception bug has started to bite him a bit in recent weeks. The former USC star has thrown 10 picks, so he'll have to rein that in against a pretty tough Atlanta secondary. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1336 rec yds, 7 TDs) continues to be the most dominant wideout in football, so look for Darnold to target him early and often here on the road.
The Seahawks' defense has been a nice surprise this season, as they rank 2nd in yards per play allowed and 1st in yards per pass allowed. Leonard Williams leads the team with 7 sacks.
The Falcons have been a major disappointment this season, as they're just 4-8 after dealing with some tough-luck injuries. Michael Penix is now on IR, and Kirk Cousins is back at the helm for Atlanta. The veteran has lost his fastball, but at least he has a bonafide playmaker like Bijan Robinson to hand the ball off to.
Robinson has found the end zone 7 times this season and is only 5 yards away from breaking the coveted 1,000-yard mark. The former Texas star may find the sledding kind of tough on the ground against a stingy Seattle rush defense, so look for Cousins to hit him with plenty of swings and screens out of the backfield.
Atlanta's defense has been awful against the run but pretty darn good against the pass. That tells me that Kenneth Walker should get plenty of carries in this spot. Linebacker Kaden Elliss leads Atlanta with 82 tackles.
SEA at ATL: 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 7
My long-time subscribers know that I love betting on stinky underdogs, and the Dirty Birds definitely fit that bill this week. Atlanta is coming off a loss to the Jets, of all teams. The Falcons beat them everywhere but the scoreboard, as they out-yarded them 389-269 and out-first-downed them 25-16.
Captain Kirk Cousins actually played pretty well in the loss last week, and I think he can have some success against Seattle. The Seahawks drubbed the Vikings 26-zip last week, but this is an awful travel spot for them. Y'all know I love fading West Coast teams when they fly east for an early kickoff.
Both teams have played a relatively soft schedule, so there's no edge in that regard. My power ratings only make Seattle a 6-point favorite after I adjusted for the rough travel spot and early kickoff time. Remember, this is going to feel like a 10 AM kickoff to the Seahawks. Give me the Falcons plus the points, and we'll sprinkle a very small amount on the moneyline.
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