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One of the most intriguing Thanksgiving Day matchups features the three-time Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) heading south to take on the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) at 4:30 p.m.
Kansas City has struggled this season. The Chiefs resurrected from their 0-2 start to the season, notching wins in five of their next six games. Since then, the AFC squad has lost two of its past three games, dropping decisions to both the Bills and the rival Broncos.
That’s a similar outlook for the Cowboys. Dallas limped to a 1-2-1 start to the year before winning three of their last five games. The Cowboys have won two straight games, downing the Raiders before gaining revenge on the NFC East rival Eagles last week.
Will Dallas or Kansas City extend their momentum with a win? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player props for Thursday’s game.
Thanksgiving Day showcases two of the game’s top passers. Kansas City star Patrick Mahomes ranks second in the NFL this season, throwing for 2,977 yards through his team’s first 11 games.
What’s more impressive is his rushing totals this season. The veteran has 52 rushes for 318 yards, surpassing his previous season’s stats with several opportunities to increase his output.
His opponent on Thursday has allowed four quarterbacks to surpass 22 rushing yards against them this season. While it’s likely Mahomes will also finish above his 267-yard passing prop bet, the better wager is to take him to cover his rushing prop total on Thanksgiving Day.
Unlike past seasons, quarterbacks have feasted against the Chiefs’ defense in 2025. Two of the last three opponents have achieved at least 270 passing yards, showing Kansas City’s weakness in its armor.
That’s why bettors are salivating over Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott’s line. The veteran quarterback has posted eight games this season with at least 250 passing yards. He’ll add to his total on Thursday, covering his Thanksgiving Day passing prop total.
It’s rare that the second-leading receiver in the NFL doesn’t receive much love, but that’s where Dallas’ George Pickens lives. It’s because he’s in the shadow of wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, a phenom who has 44 receptions for 632 yards and two touchdowns in just eight games.
Kansas City provides both Pickens and Lamb significant opportunities to thrive. The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run, keeping teams from needing to pass. That hasn’t stopped opponents from lighting up the scoreboard via the air.
The Chargers, Jaguars, and Broncos had at least a pair of wide receivers finish with 60 or more yards against the Chiefs in previous games. Expect Dallas to do the same, allowing Lamb to finish with at least 78 yards enroute to covering his prop bet.
For the first time in his professional career, Mahomes will play a Thanksgiving Day game. In fact, Thursday’s contest will mark the first time Kansas City has played in the NFL’s premier holiday event in 20 years.
Will he and the Chiefs spread some holiday cheer by covering the three-point spread on Thursday? The short answer is no. Kansas City is 1-3 ATS in road games, and Dallas is 3-2 ATS at home. Take the Cowboys to either pull off the upset or be within two points of the Chiefs for this Thanksgiving Day matchup.