Thursday’s primetime game will provide some drama as the Buffalo Bills (7-3) head south to take on the Houston Texans (5-5) in a must-see matchup.
Buffalo entered this season with Super Bowl aspirations, but the Bills have looked anything but super lately. Currently, the AFC North franchise is behind the New England Patriots in their own division, and the team is just 3-3 over the past six outings.
The Texans are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in heading into this matchup. Houston is third in the AFC South, trailing the upstart Colts and Jaguars inside their division. The organization is trending upward after winning three of its past four games.
Will Houston continue its ascent into playoff consideration with another victory? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player prop wagers for Thursday’s AFC contest.
The NFL’s reigning MVP is off to another strong start this year. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,456 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven picks. He’s also rushed 65 times for 351 yards, scoring 10 times on the ground for Buffalo.
Houston is vulnerable to running quarterbacks. In their last three games, the Texans have allowed at least 33 rushing yards to opponents. Allen will make that four straight games on Thursday, easily covering his rushing prop bet total.
With third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud out with a concussion this week, the Texans are turning to backup Davis Mills. The fifth-year signal-caller has led Houston to two straight wins as he’s thrown for 726 yards, three touchdowns, and only one interception in limited action this year.
While he’s finished with at least 274 yards in his previous two starts, Buffalo’s defensive secondary has been among the league’s best this year. The Bills have allowed only four teams to surpass the 200-yard mark against them through 10 games.
It’s also due to Buffalo’s inability to stop the run. The Bills are allowing 153 rushing yards per outing, the second-worst total in the NFL. Expect Mills to be more of a game manager on Thursday night, failing to cover his passing prop bet total.
Despite laying an egg in last week’s contest, fourth-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir is leading the Bills’ receiving corps in 2025. He’s caught 46 passes thus far, notching 454 yards and three touchdowns for Buffalo.
The egg was significant, however. Against Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers allowed Shakir only one catch for negative yards. His matchup against the Texans is another tough contest as Houston hasn’t allowed a receiver to earn more than 44 yards in their past three outings.
Although he is a big-catch dependent receiver, bettors should expect him to bounce back on Thursday. He’s finished with at least 44 yards in six games thus far, notching five 20-plus receptions in those games. Expect Allen to find him on a long pass to cover Shakir’s prop total.
To be honest, I’m not following the oddsmakers’ logic with this game’s spread. Houston has won games over the 49ers, Jaguars, and Titans during the past month, and the Texans are finally getting healthy.
Buffalo’s wins have been dominant, but the offense is carrying the load. I would expect the Bills to put up some points on the stingy Houston defense, but not enough for a 5.5-point spread. Take the Texans to keep this game close throughout, if not outright win this contest.
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