Welcome to NFL Week 11, sports betting family. The 2025-26 season is flying by at lightning speed. As usual, this week's pro football slate is packed with lots of intriguing matchups across the board.
I've found some expected value on the Chargers vs Jaguars game, which kicks off at 1:00 Eastern Time on Sunday, November 16. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one should be fun to watch, and hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Chargers -1.5 on the look-ahead back in the summer months. However, that all changed after the Jags blew a huge lead last week against the Texans. Most online sportsbooks now have the Chargers as a 3-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a moderate move toward the Under so far. The line opened at 45, and most shops are still dealing 43.5. Caesars is offering reduced juice on the Under if you prefer that side. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger.
Jim Harbaugh has this Chargers team rolling right along. They were blown out by a couple of touchdowns by the Colts, but they've won three in a row since then. The winning streak is even more impressive when you think about all the injuries that Los Angeles has had to overcome.
Justin Herbert continues to be one of the league's most consistent quarterbacks. The former Oregon star has thrown for 2610 yards and 19 TDs so far this season. Ladd McConkey has been Herbert's favorite target, as he's racked up 631 receiving yards and 4 scores.
The Chargers' defense has been a bright spot all year long, as they rank 3rd in yards per pass allowed and 8th in points per game allowed. Tulu Tuipulotu leads the squad with 8 sacks.
Jacksonville took a 29-10 lead into the 4th quarter against the Texans last weekend, but they somehow found a way to lose. The Jags' defense made Davis Mills look like Joe Montana. You young bucks that have never heard of him should type him into ChatGPT right now (lol).
Trevor Lawrence looked like Superman a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs, but he's been the picture of inconsistency for most of the season. Things won't be any easier for Lawrence now that Travis Hunter has landed on IR with a knee injury.
The Jaguars have some odd defensive metrics that are kind of head-scratching. They rank just 23rd in yards per play allowed, but 11th in yards per rush allowed. Arik Armstead leads the team with 4.5 sacks, but the team as a whole ranks dead last in that category.
LAC at JAX: 1:00 ET on Sunday 11/16
Let's get NFL Week 11 off on the right foot with this banger of a spot for the Jags on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville just blew a big lead against Houston, so this is a great 'buy low' spot on them. The Chargers just looked fantastic in their big way on Sunday Night Football, so this is a prime spot to 'sell high' on them.
This is an awful travel spot for the Chargers, as they're flying from the West Coast to the East Coast for an early start time. I know a lot of folks poo-poo the circadian rhythm, but it's going to feel like 10 AM to the Chargers players. A sluggish start from Jim Harbaugh's crew wouldn't surprise me in the least.
The Jags have some ugly metrics, but something tells me that they'll be able to run the ball quite well here at home. The Chargers rank just 26th in yards per rush allowed, so Travis Etienne should have a rather large day at the office. Give me the Jags to win this one outright, but we'll take the points as insurance.