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Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season, sports betting amigos. There's nothing like Sunday Night Football to wrap up a great day, and we have a pretty solid matchup for us here on October 19.
I've found some expected value on the Falcons vs 49ers game, which kicks off at 8:20 PM Eastern Time on NBC. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one should be fun to watch, and hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the breakdown.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at SF -6.5 on the look-ahead line during the summer and SF -3.5 last week. However, that all changed when the Falcons upset the Bills on Sunday Night Football last week. Most online sportsbooks now have San Fran as a 2-point favorite as of Thursday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a small amount of interest in the Under so far. The line opened at 47.5, and a few sportsbooks in the US are now offering 47. There are no true outliers in the market at this time.
San Francisco was only down 4 points at the half last week against Tampa Bay, but they just couldn't put things together on offense during the second half. The Niners ended up losing 30-19 even though they racked up more yardage than the Bucs. Two interceptions from Mac Jones were simply too much for this team to overcome.
That being said, I think Jones will bounce back this week if he gets the chance. It's looking more and more like Brock Purdy could be back under center for the Niners. No matter who gets the start, they'd better be ready to get rid of the ball quickly against this ferocious Falcons pass rush.
The loss of Fred Warner hurts this 49ers defense tremendously. However, I think we'll see a more spirited effort out of this unit after giving up 30 points last week. San Fran's D does an excellent job of getting off the field on third down, and I could see Robert Saleh finding ways to make Michael Penix uncomfortable.
Atlanta looked fantastic last week on Monday Night Football after their bye week. The offense was crisp, and the defense was flat-out nasty at times. Bijan Robinson stole the show with 170 yards on the ground, 81 of which were on a long TD scamper that left Bills fans stunned.
Look for the Falcons to keep pounding the rock with their deadly combo of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. They don't want to put this game in the hands of Penix because he's been so shaky on the road so far this season.
Atlanta's defense has been elite against the pass, as they rank 2nd in yards per pass allowed. However, they've been gashed in the run game at times, so look for San Fran to give Christian McCaffrey plenty of touches to try and exploit that.
FanDuel is being nice to us with this one, as most of the leading indicator offshore books have this priced at -2.5. The injury to star LB Fred Warner sucks, but I still think this is a great bounce-back spot for the Niners. The look-ahead line on this game was SF -6.5 during the summer and SF -3.5 just last week. Even with all the injuries, this is too big an adjustment IMO.
San Fran already proved a few weeks ago that they can win with their 2nd stringers. Remember, they won outright as huge dogs against the Rams on Thursday Night Football. Yes, they looked pretty rough last week against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, but that was a tough back-to-back road spot.
On the flip side, this is the ideal time to sell the Falcons at a high. The whole world just saw Atlanta put a whipping on mighty Buffalo, and now everyone is ready to crown the Dirty Birds as world beaters. Let's lay the small number with the Niners, and hope that this is the week they get Kittle and Pearsall back.
Prediction: 49ers 27 - Falcons 20