Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL season, sports betting friends. There's nothing like an autumn Sunday packed with lots of enticing matchups like we have on this weekend's card.
I've found some expected value on Sunday afternoon's Seahawks vs. Jaguars game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on FOX. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This one may be an ugly watch, but hopefully it puts money in our pockets. Let's get into the break down.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Jacksonville -1.5 on the look-ahead line. The surprising thing is that even after the Jags' upset of the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, some books now have Seattle as the favorite in this one. As always, shop around for the best price, regardless of which side you like.
As for the game total, there's been a small appetite for the Over. The line opened at 46.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 47.5. If you like the Over, you can get +100 juice at ESPN Bet as of Thursday afternoon.
Seattle dug itself a 13-0 hole against Tampa Bay on Sunday, and even though they came back to take the lead, Baker Mayfield "baked" up some more of his usual late-game magic. The Seahawks fell 38-35 in a thriller.
I still think the Seahawks have a decent defense, but they've had some injuries and mental lapses that have really held them back so far. Seattle ranks 2nd in yards per rush allowed, so the Jacksonville O-line had better bring its A-game.
Jacksonville overcame a ton of boneheaded plays to take down Kansas City on Monday Night. Trevor Lawrence got stepped on, fell down, and then got back up to run for the game-winning touchdown late. It was a heck of a game to watch, to say the least.
The Jaguars did a lot of nice things in that game, but I think they could be in for a bit of a letdown. You just know they partied hard for a day or two after that huge win, and now they're facing another tough team on a short week.
Jacksonville bettered its secondary during the week by bringing in CB Greg Newsome II from Cleveland via trade. However, he's listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. We also don't know if DE Travon Walker will play, as he's been nursing a wrist ailment.
Something tells me that Seattle will be in a foul mood after blowing a late lead at home against the Bucs last week. I know it's a tough travel spot heading from Seattle all the way to Jacksonville. However, I think that's canceled out by the Jaguars being on a short week after their HUGE upset win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
So, that means we have a pissed off 3-2 Seahawks team going to battle against a fat and happy 4-1 Jags squad. Seattle also has a shot at getting edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence and stud CB Devon Witherspoon back from injury.
A lot of the advanced stats also point to the Birds in this spot. Seattle has a yards per play differential of +1.3, which is insanely good. The Jags, on the other hand, are sitting at -0.2 in that department. Jacksonville also ranks just 29th in sack rate, so that means Sam Darnold should have a clean pocket to hook up with Jaxon Smith-Njigba on several deep post patterns. Give me the 'Hawks to get the W.
Prediction: Seahawks 27 - Jaguars 20