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Can you believe Week 5 of the NFL season is already here? We certainly can’t, as the year is just flying by. The week started with an impressive Thursday Night Football battle between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, which is a trend that we hope will continue over the entire slate.
While there are a lot of awesome matchups going down this week, we’re particularly excited about the game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, which is taking place on Sunday Night Football.
The Bills are 8.5-point favorites, but with a point total over/under projection of 48.5, this could be a hard-fought, high-scoring matchup between these AFC East foes. We’ve got you covered with our favorite player props from this one. Let’s get into it!
A lot of people are going to shy away from Drake Maye’s passing line in this one, and we can’t blame them for that.
The Bills allow the fewest passing yards to opposing teams this year, but with the Patriots likely being in a suboptimal game script, Maye is going to have to throw a lot.
He might not be the most efficient against a great defense, but considering Maye has achieved 222+ passing yards in all but one game this season, we’re riding with him.
Take all of the analysis we just said about Maye and flip it on its head for the Bills. Josh Allen’s passing numbers haven’t been stellar this year when you look at the raw data, but the Bills haven’t needed him to be special in this area for them to be 4-0.
They’ve been incredibly efficient and dominant on the ground, which has allowed Allen to play much calmer and dialed in, not needing to throw for a ton of yards to destroy their opponents.
We’re expecting more of the same in this contest, which is why we’re riding with the under for his passing yards.
We mentioned the Bills’ rushing attack, which couldn’t be made possible without James Cook. Cook has been the MVP of this offense in many ways thus far, already having 75 carries for over 400 yards, adding five touchdowns along the way.
Allen can take off whenever he wants to, of course, but with Cook in the backfield, he can be confident that his lead back will carry the bulk of the rushing load.
Cook has achieved 18+ carries in three of four games this season, and if the game script is as run-heavy as we project for the Bills, he could hit the over on this line before the fourth quarter.