Welcome to another Monday Night Football double dip, sports betting friends. The beginning of the work week can be kind of tough on all of us, but some NFL action always makes things better. I've found some nice expected value on tonight's Bengals vs Broncos game, which kicks off at 8:15 PM Eastern Time on ABC.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun one to watch!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Denver -2.5 on the look-ahead line during the summer, mainly because they viewed these two squads as relatively equal. However, with the awful injury to Joe Burrow, we have to consider the other lookahead line of Denver -6 that was posted last week. A ton of action on the horses has since pushed the line up to Denver -7.5.
As for the game total, there's been an appetite for the Under so far. The line opened at 47.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 44.5. The move down makes sense because neither of these offenses is exactly lighting the world on fire.
Cincinnati looked absolutely horrendous last week against Minnesota. Brian Flores kept dialing up the pressure, and Jake Browning looked more and more confused as the day went on. When all was said and done, the Bengals suffered their first loss of the season, a resounding 48-10 beatdown.
Even though Browning did a terrific job against the Jags in Week 2, this Cincy offense has been a huge disappointment so far. The Bengals rank just 31st in yards per play and dead last (32nd) in yards per rush. Cincinnati has got to find ways to get Chase Brown going if they want to keep the train on the tracks until Burrow comes back in December.
The Bengals' defense has also been on the lackluster side. They're allowing 30.3 points per game, which ranks just 28th in the league. They've also had a hard time getting off the field on third down.
Denver is coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses on the road. They gave away a win against Indy on a stupid leverage penalty and then fell to their division rival Chargers last week. As bad as Denver has looked lately, this could be a good 'get-right' spot for them.
Bo Nix has looked lost at times so far this season. Even in Denver's win against Tennessee, the former Oregon star just didn't look as crisp. The Broncos rank just 28th in yards per pass, so Nix is going to have to step things up to keep opposing defenses from keying on their very good running game.
As crazy as it may sound, I think this is a good 'buy-low' spot on the Bengals. They were embarrassed in such a big way last week, and they'll be eager to get back out there and prove that they aren't that bad of a football team. Browning looked rough against Minny, but I think he'll perform better seeing such a similar blitz-happy defense for the second straight week.
Look for Zac Taylor to call more screens and draws with Chase Brown to take a little bit of the pressure off of Browning. I also expect lots of quick screens to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. This Cincy offense has plenty of weapons, even with their backup at the helm.
In the end, I made this line closer to the second lookahead of Denver -6. My pure number was Denver -4, but I adjusted upwards because of the loss of Burrow. Even still, I think there's enough value on the Bengals to pull the trigger at anything better than +7. Good luck, folks!
Prediction: Broncos 24 Bengals 20