Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season, sports betting friends. There's nothing like a fall Sunday packed with lots of interesting matchups like we have on this weekend's card. I've found some nice expected value on Sunday afternoon's Panthers vs Patriots game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on FOX.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun one to watch!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at New England -3.5 on the look-ahead line during the summer, mainly because they were unsure of how to price the Panthers. However, even with Carolina's dominant win over Atlanta last week, the line has moved up to New England -5.5 at most sports betting apps.
As for the game total, there's been an appetite for the Under so far. The line opened at 45.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 42.5. The move down makes sense because neither of these offenses is exactly lighting the world on fire.
Carolina blew out Atlanta last week to the tune of 30-0 to earn its first win of the season. The crazy thing about that victory was that Bryce Young still only threw for 121 yards. The running game wasn't all that efficient either, as Chuba Hubbard gained just 73 yards on 17 carries.
So, how in the world did Carolina win in such dominant fashion? They caused three Atlanta turnovers, and the defense didn't even allow the Falcons to get inside the red zone. That's almost unheard of in today's offensive-driven NFL world.
The Panthers have done a decent job of protecting Bryce Young so far, and they'll have to keep doing that against a feisty New England front. They've also done a slightly above-average job of scoring touchdowns when they get inside the red zone.
New England lost a tough one to Pittsburgh last week at home by a touchdown. The Pats outgained the Steelers 369 to 203, but they shot themselves in the foot with five turnovers in a hard-fought battle. Drake Maye still played well, as he led the Pats in both passing and rushing yards.
Maye's favorite target so far has been tight end Hunter Henry, who hauled in two touchdown receptions last week. The Pats have got to get more production from their wide receiving corps if they want to take any meaningful steps forward this season. Thankfully for them, multiple reports are saying that rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson will start to get more carries this week against the Panthers.
We were on the Panthers last week, and they cashed for us in no-sweat fashion against the Falcons. However, I'm fading them this week against the Pats on the road. New England is still looking for its first home win, and the crowd will be jacked in Foxboro.
A closer look at last week's box score tells us that Carolina wasn't all that impressive. It was more of Atlanta just peeing down their legs the entire game. The Panthers rank dead last in sack rate, so 2nd-year QB Drake Maye should have all day to find some open targets down the field.
I don't see Carolina getting anything done on the ground against this Pats front 7 (ranked 2nd in yards per rush allowed). That'll put it all on Bryce Young's shoulders, which won't be a good thing since New England ranks 7th in sack rate. Let's lay the points!
Prediction: Patriots 24 Panthers 14