2025 is off to a good start for our NFL Anytime TD props, as we are sitting at 9-9 for a profit of 6.33 units. Week 3's results were pretty close to break-even. Mitch and Ant remain undefeated after posting winners on Keenan Allen and Mike Evans, respectively.
Let's find out what Week 4 will hold. Our staff gives out their best Anytime Touchdown props below. Best of luck, folks! Let's get into it!
TEN at HOU - 1:00 PM EDT
So, I am 0-3 this season. I'm clearly more like the Giants now than the Chiefs. I'll change things up and look for something a bit chalkier to try and get in the win column. I LOVE Nico Collins +120. Collins is the go-to weapon in Houston, leading in targets and yards.
He’s healthy, explosive, and averaging nearly 13 yards per catch. Honestly, any day you can get Collins at plus money feels good because he is that good. But this week it might be more than business. It feels personal now that Titans corner L’Jarius Sneed is talking trash.
Per the Houston Chronicle, "when asked about Nico Collins, Sneed responded dismissively, "Who?” When the reporter clarified “Nico Collins,” Sneed repeated, “Who?” with a smirk."
Collins, who isn't one to avoid contact, responded with “He knows who I am. That’s crazy.” and “I’m a dawg … I don’t say much. I just play. You can talk all you want. I’m not hearing it. Just line that s- up."
I think Sneed is a very good but not elite CB. And he is clearly trying to inspire his team, a team that ranks 28th vs. receivers this season BTW. But Collins is an elite WR, and he has a history of embarrassing corners who make it personal.
In Week 2 of 2023, Collins had a career game: 7 catches, 146 yards, and a touchdown after a week of Kenny Moore talking trash. Expect fireworks every time they line up. This matchup has the makings of a highlight-reel showdown and the perfect spark to push Collins into the end zone.
BAL at KC - 4:25 PM EDT
If you’ve followed my picks, you know I’m all about plus-money gambles, so this week I’m taking a shot on Patrick Mahomes at +350 to score a rushing TD because the value simply doesn’t match the reality.
He already leads the Chiefs in rushing scores this season with 2, and it’s not like he’s vulturing — these are designed, or instinctive scramble runs in big moments. With Kareem Hunt being the only other Chief to find the end zone on the ground with just a single TD, Mahomes is clearly willing to take matters into his own hands and get points on the board.
The Ravens' defense has been nothing shy of a disaster so far. They’re bottom 3 in rushing yards allowed with 149 per game, second to last in points given up, and dead last in total yardage. They’ve already let in 12 TDs, and they’ve yet to come up with answers. Sure, Mahomes didn’t have to run much last week against the Giants, but when the games matter — like against Philly and the Chargers — he ran a TD in each, including chunk plays of 22 and 15 yards.
This game’s projected to be tight with only a 2.5-point spread, and with the Ravens struggling to contain mobile QBs, I like Mahomes to make a play with his legs near the goal line or break a scramble in the red zone.
At +350? That’s the most value we’ve seen for any player with 2+ TDs this season, and I’m not passing that up.
IND at LAC - 4:05 PM EDT
My Homer strategy blew up on me in a big way last week, as CeeDee Lamb hurt his ankle taking a handoff (of all things) against 'Da Bears. Hopefully, Mr. Lamb heals up quickly because he's one of the few bright spots on this Dallas squad. Anyway, let's get back to basics with Puka!
Now that Cooper Kupp has moved on to greener pastures in Seattle, Nacua is now Matt Stafford's favorite target. How do I know this? He's already gotten 35 targets in just three games this season!
The crazy thing is that Nacua has yet to score a receiving touchdown, although he did hit paydirt against the Titans in Week 2. The Colts look like a tough squad this season, but they really haven't played a complete team like the Rams yet. C'mon, Puka...take me home!
GB at DAL - 8:20 PM EDT
Give me Romeo Doubs at +190. He leads all Packers receivers with 3 red zone targets and should see his target share continue to climb with Jayden Reed on the IR.
Coming off a tough matchup with the Browns, Doubs should have a much more productive outing against a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks 32nd in opponent passing yards per game, 31st in opponent QBR, and 31st in receiving touchdowns allowed through 3 weeks.
Doubs leads the Packers' wide receivers in receptions and yards and played a season-high 89% of the team's snaps in week 3. Look for him to capitalize on this matchup and find the end zone against the Cowboys on Sunday Night.
LAC at NYG - 1:00 PM EDT
After some early success with Drake Maye in week 2 and Brian Thomas Jr. in week 1, I’m feeling good about Keenan Allen’s anytime TD line. His return to LA has him looking sharp and has quickly reignited his connection with Herbert. With a touchdown in both games so far, seeing Allen's odds over +200 is surprising. The high number might be because they’re playing the Broncos, and the Chargers have a deep receiving core.
However, with Pat Surtain a bit banged up last week, the secondary could be more vulnerable than usual. Daniel Jones threw for 316 yards against them, so Justin Herbert should have some success, especially since they’re playing at home. The Chargers' passing attack has been in sync so far, which will definitely challenge the Broncos’ secondary.
Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and even Will Dissly have all been breaking through defenses alongside Allen. Despite having such a talented group of receivers, Allen is still getting over 7 targets per game. As the primary red zone threat, scoring both touchdowns within 12 yards of the goal line, the odds look great that he’ll find the end zone again.
NYJ at MIA - 7:15 PM EDT (Monday)
Sitting at 3-0 feels pretty good, I must say. I can't imagine how it feels to be 0-3. Someone else on this list knows what that feels like. Going with last week's theme, it just seems right beat up on the bad defenses.
The Jets let up 29 points to the Buccaneers, albeit almost stealing a win regardless, but that doesn't matter for us; we just need them to let up touchdowns, which they will. On Miami's side of the ball, Tua looks like he couldn't hit water if he were in the ocean.
The guy just can't seem to throw a pass downfield. That's the perfect storm for our guy Achane, either they hand it off to him or Tua throws the only pass he could, a little check down, and Achane houses it.
Achane is sitting at 2 receiving TDs so far this season, and I think he continues with another one this week or a rushing TD. Let's keep the streak alive and take us to 4-0!!
CHI at LV - 4:25 PM EDT
As the resident Bears Meatball, I'll make this quick. Caleb Williams finally looked like what the Bears were hoping for when they drafted him #1 overall last year. While I can sit here and talk about how horrible the Cowboys' pass defense is, the Raiders aren't that far behind them.
They're also bottom ten in Pass Yards Allowed with the most so far, given up to Drake Maye. They don't give up many passing TDs, but they haven't really played anyone, and they don't generate interceptions, with only one so far this year.
Odunze has clearly been Williams' favorite target so far, but DJ is starting to work his way into the Ben Johnson system after catching his first TD last week. As teams hone in on Odunze and Kmet as the big body guys in the red zone, look for Moore to be sure-handed, the outlier Williams goes to.
Da Bears will roll!