Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season, sports betting friends. There's nothing like a fall Sunday packed with lots of interesting matchups like we have on this weekend's card. I've found some nice expected value on Sunday afternoon's Colts vs. Titans game, which kicks off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on CBS.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun one to watch!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Tennessee -1.5 on the look-ahead line during the summer, mainly because they were unsure of how well Daniel Jones would do in Indy. However, since both Jones and the Colts have looked remarkably good, the line has flipped to Indianapolis -4.5 at some sports betting apps.
As for the game total, there's been an appetite for the Over so far. The line opened at 42.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 43.5. The move upward makes sense, again because of how much the Colts offense has exceeded off-season expectations.
Fans in Nashville were thrilled to get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, but they haven't had much else to cheer about since then. Cam Ward has shown flashes of brilliance at times, but the Titans' offensive line hasn't given the young rookie much time at all to throw.
Tennessee fought hard in an 8-point loss at Denver to open the season, and they actually led by 3 at the half against the Rams last week. Unfortunately, the defense was shredded by Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua in the second half of what ended up being a 33-19 loss.
The Titans will have to establish the run more against an Indy front that has struggled in that area so far this season. Tony Pollard should be able to find some holes against a Colts defense that ranks just 29th in yards per rush allowed. That'll help take some pressure off of Ward and the passing game.
Indianapolis has been one of the league's biggest surprises so far this season. The Colts smoked a pretty bad Dolphins squad in Week 1 to the tune of 33-8. They followed that up with a nice win over the Broncos last week. Danny Dimes has been playing out of his mind so far (2 pass TDs, 3 rush TDs).
In all honesty, Indy was extremely lucky to pull off that win over the Broncos. Denver missed a field goal late and then got a boneheaded leverage call to give Indy another shot at a game-winning field goal. That being said, any win in the NFL is a good win.
I needed a double shot of Mylanta and a few tablets of Advil to make this bet, but I think the Colts have to come back down to earth at some point. They were incredibly lucky to win last week thanks to a boneheaded move by the Broncos at the buzzer. Indy looks great with Danny Dimes, but I'm still not ready to buy into all the hype.
On the flip side, I think this is a good "buy low" spot on the hometown Titans. Cam Ward has looked pretty decent so far, and he should have a lot more time to throw in this one.
The Colts rank just 27th at rushing the passer, so I expect a solid outing from the young rookie. The line was Titans -1.5 a couple of weeks ago, and I'm betting that a 6-point line move is too much. Let's take the points!
Prediction: Colts 23 Titans 21