It’s Week 3 of the NFL, and we’re already seeing quarterbacks dropping like flies. Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, and Joe Burrow are all out, with Purdy questionable as well. These offenses have taken a hit. Not saying quarterbacks are the only way teams score, but with so much disruption this early, some total under bets look extremely juicy. So, we’ll go through some of our favorite bets, along with a few player props to go with them.
This might be one of the easier lines this week with Jaylen Daniels out. The Commanders are left with Marcus Mariota as their quarterback. Not that Mariota isn’t a capable QB, but the Washington offense hasn’t been very explosive even with Daniels leading it. They scored just 21 points against the Giants and 18 against the Packers. The Raiders are probably the weakest defense they’ve faced so far this year, but they’re not complete pushovers. That’s also worth noting they lost Austin Ekeler, leaving most of the rushing duties in the backfield up to rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt. With the offense limited on the Commanders’ side, and the Raiders not dominating offensively either.
The Raiders struggled on Monday night football against the Chargers as Geno Smith looked very limited. He threw 3 picks in that game, and the Raiders didn’t score a single TD. With the offensive line giving Smith and Jeanty no push, the Raiders' offensive potential seems limited right now. Either way, though, there is a good chance that at least one of these teams struggles, which should prevent the score from creeping up toward this line.
This feels like a bounce-back week for the Steelers. After a blowout loss to the Seahawks and a razor-thin game against the Jets, the Steelers need to show us something. Primarily, we need to see that elite defense that has been a consistent hallmark of the Steelers for years. I think that’s exactly what we’re going to see too. The Patriots have made progress offensively, but they’re still limited. If the Steelers' defense can bounce back to even above average, the Patriots' offense will stall. On the flip side, the Steelers' offense has been a bit lackluster too. Rodgers has been fine, but without much of a run game, it’s all on his shoulders. The connection between him and Metcalf hasn’t been bad, but with limited receiving options, a weak run game, and an old QB who doesn’t want to get hit, I don’t see them lighting it up. Especially if Christian Gonzalez is back for the Pats in the secondary. I think we’ll see this game fizzle out offensively early.
This isn’t going to be the best display of football. The Browns continue to spiral as they try to figure out their QB situation. Now facing the hottest team in the league, the Browns’ offense is in trouble. Under Flacco, they haven’t scored more than 17 points in either of their games. While the defense remains somewhat competent, the chances of seeing any life from the offense are minimal. For Green Bay, they’re not a high-scoring team yet. Having scored 27 points against the Lions and Commanders so far, they’ve faced strong competition. However, with no true number one option on offense, I think we could see them keep their scoring relatively in check. While capable of big plays, they’ve done a good job of keeping the ball moving steadily and chewing up clock. With Josh Jacobs looking solid again this year, and now Parsons creating one of the most intimidating defenses in the league, this one feels like a solid under.
Now, this one feels a little off, but based on what we’ve seen from KC this year, they don’t favor high-scoring teams. The Giants had a solid scoring game last week, but that was against the Cowboys’ weak defense. In Week One against the Commanders, they only managed to score 6 points. With solid offensive weapons like Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson, Russell Wilson has been able to move the ball. Hell, he had the most passing yards in a single game of his career last week. The man still has something left in the tank. However, going against the Chiefs is different, even in New Jersey. Without Worthy on the Chiefs, they’re severely lacking playmakers to pair with Mahomes. Plus, Pacheco hasn’t been able to get anything going, so this offense has largely depended on Mahomes being a wizard. Even with Mahomes, they’ve struggled to put up points consistently. This game feels like it might come down to possession. I expect them to maximize time with the ball and avoid letting Russell and Nabers’ potential turn it into a shootout. If it turns into a fast-paced game, I don’t think the Chiefs can keep up. We’ll see, but I’m not expecting fireworks here.