The Washington Commanders (1-0) head to Lambeau Field tonight to take on the Green Bay Packers (1-0) in a marquee Week 2 matchup. Both teams impressed in their season openers as both young quarterbacks continue to win games. Washington dominated the Giants on defense, while Jayden Daniels showed flashes in the passing game with his new weapon, Deebo Samuel.
Green Bay, looking to avoid a letdown spot off a convincing win over Detroit, looks to lean on Jordan Love and a rejuvenated defense. The Commanders have not had much success traveling to Green Bay, losing six straight games. With the Packers favored by 3.5 points and the over/under hovering around 48-49 total points, this sets up as a tight primetime matchup.
As previously mentioned, Washington has lost six straight at Lambeau, but none of them had Daniels at QB. In my opinion, Washington’s defense will be the key to victory here for the Commanders. Jayden Daniels will show up, especially on prime time, so if the front four can control the line of scrimmage, slow Jacobs, and keep Love from making magical plays, they can keep this close.
The Commanders went 5-3 on the road in 2024, winning three of their last four on the road. On offense, Daniels’ mobility adds another layer of difficulty for defenses to handle. The Packers slowed the Lions' rushing attack, and if they do the same, they will force Daniels to beat them with his arm. If he can keep the chains moving, keeping the Packers offense off the field, they can pull off a victory on the road.
Green Bay’s advantage lies in balance on both sides of the ball. The Packers can run the ball effectively behind a physical offensive line and a physical runner in Jacobs. They also have enough weapons on the outside and with Tucker Kraft at tight end to keep defenses honest.
The Commanders allowed the third most rushing yards in 2024, and I expect that to be a heavy emphasis in 2025. They did that in week 1, shutting down the Giants' rushing attack to 74 combined yards, but the Packers will give them a stiffer test. If that's the case, we could see a QB battle tonight!
Defensively, the Packers get a slight edge playing in Lambeau, especially facing a young quarterback in their first road start of the season. Adding Micah Parsons gave a jolt of energy and hope to this defense. If they can limit Daniels’ big plays and Love avoids mistakes, Green Bay should be in a position to control the tempo and pull out a victory.
While I like the Packers -3 (-118) and ML (-166), I like teasing their line to +3.5 and pairing it with the Cowboys as my main play. I did put some money on both spread and ML, but I do think the Commanders can present some problems for the Packers, especially coming off a big game vs the Lions, just four days ago.
Daniels can shine under the bright lights, and his first visit to victory could end up being a special one. Tacking the Packers with the points gives some cushion in case Love the the boys fall apart in the second half. Green Bay showed against Detroit that they can control tempo and exploit mismatches, and while I do think they should cover the 3 or 3.5, a short week can favor the dogs.
The Cowboys have a good shot to cover their -5.5 line this week at home vs the Giants, but playing their ML seems appropriate. Facing a division rival, who is coming off a loss, could be difficult to beat by the spread, even at Jerry World. And while I do recommend a play on -4.5 to -6 for the Boys, their ML offers some protection.
The Cowboys held their own against the Eagles, keeping it close 24-20 on the road, and I expect them to come out and cover their 1st half spread Sunday. As a team, they ran the ball effectively, 22 carries for 119 yards, good for 5.4 per carry and two touchdowns. If their running game can find success to complement the passing attack, the Cowboys could be in and win a lot of games this year.
Daniels threw for 233 yards in his opener and covered this line in 80% of his games last season, 90% over his last ten games, and eight of eleven on the road, good for 79%. The Packers allowed Jared Goff to throw for 225 last week, though the Lions were down the entire game. They allowed the first three QBs (Richardson, Darnold, Murray) to throw for over 200 at Lambeau last season before they held five of the next six under 200 passing yards.
I expect the Packers to pressure Daniels into making passes, and he will have to execute under fire and duress. The addition of Samuel and McLaurin working back in should continue to pay dividends for the offense. Love did not need to throw for more than 188 yards last week, but I think a big game is brewing in primetime.
Projections have him going over 220 yards, and I believe he will surpass that number. Love cashed this line in his first five games and first ten of twelve to start last season. At home, he cashed his first five of six. Five of eight QBs surpassed this line vs the Commanders at home last season. Both quarterbacks should have enough opportunities to exceed 200 yards.
I’m not afraid of a little rusty connection, as we saw in week 1. McLaurin remains Washington’s most consistent and dangerous offensive weapon. While the addition of Samuel is intriguing, teams will game plan more for him, and he is injury-prone. McLaurin had two receptions on four targets, and one was a misconnection on a deep ball. The offseason did these two no favors, but I believe they will quickly get back on track.
Green Bay’s defense is solid overall, but it has shown vulnerability to elite route runners who can win one-on-one battles. McLaurin’s ability to separate and get behind his defender is all it takes to find the end zone. I expect him to find more than 4 targets tonight, and one could be for the big one.
McLaurin caught a touchdown in eight of his last nine games overall and nine of his last ten on the road. I don’t typically play these odds for anytime touchdowns, but a game at Lambeau, in primetime, screams Scary Terry Touchdown!