The Chicago Bears enter the 2025 season as a potential surprise contender in the NFC North. They’re listed at +425 to win the division, and their win total is 8.5. After a 5-12 finish last year, the team went all-in on a major rebuild, particularly on offense. New head coach Ben Johnson, formerly Detroit's offensive coordinator, brings an aggressive and creative mindset to Chicago.
The Bears also overhauled the roster by bringing in top-tier talent like Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Grady Jarrett, alongside playmakers from the draft in Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. The offensive line is projected to have as many as four new starters, which gives me a lot of hesitation to take the over wins total, as much of a team's success aligns with the trench play.
Caleb Williams, a player I was not very high on coming out of the draft, needs more protection and to get rid of the ball much faster. Williams is expected to take a step forward in his sophomore season, thanks to better protection and upgraded weapons.
Still, question marks remain. The schedule is brutal, with road games against top-tier teams like the Ravens, Bengals, and Eagles. While there's cautious optimism about the Bears turning a corner, the team’s depth, trench play, turnover at multiple coaching positions, and questionable QB play leave me to believe the Bears will still make a ton of mistakes, losing to losses this season. Ultimately, this season hinges on whether Williams and Johnson can form a productive partnership quickly.
Coming off a 15-2 season in 2024, the Detroit Lions are again viewed as the frontrunners in the NFC North, priced at +135 to take the division with an over/under win total of 10.5. Despite their success, Detroit faces new challenges. To expect a team to win 11 games again with changes at coordinator is a big ask!
Both offensive and defensive coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, join the retooled Lions staff to keep the ball rolling. John Morton takes over as offensive coordinator, which also brings more questions, as he tends to game-plan a lot differently than Ben Johnson did.
The other biggest question mark is their interior line, as they lost key linemen Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler. These losses have raised concerns about the stability of a once-dominant offensive line. Still, Detroit’s talent remains undeniable. The offense features standout players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta, while Aidan Hutchinson leads a defense expected to bounce back after injuries disrupted their 2024 season.
Returning 20 of 22 starters, the Lions benefit from continuity and will aim to weather a demanding schedule. I believe they can get 10 wins, but I do think that will be all they win this coming season!
The Green Bay Packers approach the 2025 season as one of the most quietly dangerous teams in the NFC North. With a win total set at 9.5 and +275 odds to win the division, Green Bay looks poised to build on its 11-6 finish from last year. One big thing I believe swings in their favor this season is divisional play.
Last season, they had a 1-5 record within the division; this season, I expect them to go 5-1 or 4-2. The Packers were among the league’s top teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoyed a +12 turnover differential in 2024. Quarterback Jordan Love is entering his third year as a starter, and this is the season for him to elevate his game to elite status. He’ll be working with a revamped offense that includes running back Josh Jacobs, rookie receiver Matthew Golden, and a reloaded O-line.
The Packers also addressed the secondary and trenches by adding Nate Hobbs and Aaron Banks. There are some questions about their secondary, but I believe they will be able to make enough plays relying on a mix of Keisean Nixon, Hobbs, and Carrington Valentine. The front seven has strong breakout potential, especially with talents like Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness. With head coach Matt LaFleur’s track record of five playoff appearances in six seasons, I expect a deeper run for this team in 2025.
The Minnesota Vikings head into the 2025 season as the biggest wild card in the NFC North. After an impressive 14-3 record last year under head coach Kevin O’Connell, with a 1-year QB, can he reproduce that same success?
O’Connell holds a 34-17 record since taking over in 2022, but this year hinges on whether he and this offense can gel with J.J. McCarthy. The former first-round pick missed his entire rookie year due to injury and now steps in to replace Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback. The team still features elite offensive weapons like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and both offensive and defensive lines were strengthened through free agency.
Defensively, the unit is expected to remain strong in advanced efficiency metrics such as DVOA. Some analysts argue that the Vikings’ roster is built to succeed even with average quarterback play, and I agree with that sentiment. I trust O’Connell to put J.J. in the right positions. The Vikings also have a two-headed backfield of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, who will help to keep pressure off the offense.
Jacobs logged 301 carries for 1,329 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns last year in his first Green Bay season, and I believe he will be on pace for that again. Reports are he's looking even better this offseason, and the Packers will lean on him to keep the offense balanced. I expect the Packers to be up in many of their games, which could position them to lean on the run when ahead. The Packers averaged 146.8 rushing yards per game as a team. I don’t expect Jacobs to go over 300 carries again, but I believe he will find 275+.
Coming off 17 games played last season, a 13.7% target share, reeling in 707 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. Kraft is emerging as a primary chain mover and red zone option for Jordan Love. News has come out that the Packers are also looking for ways to get him even more involved this season. Most of his catches were from 0-10 years, and they will be looking to incorporate him with deeper routes this season. I expect him to surpass 50+ receptions this season.
I must go back to St. Brown again, regardless of coaching and philosophy changes. He's cashed this three straight seasons and is one of the most durable wide receivers in football. In back-to-back seasons, he reeled in 1,515 yards in 2023 and 1,263 in 2024. Even with coordinator changes, he should remain the centerpiece of the passing game and is still projected to lead the team in receiving under John Morton. Given his target share and proven production, 1,051 yards is a manageable line.
Gary finished with 7.5 sacks last year, while also hitting 9 in 2023 and 9.5 in 2021. Following his knee injury in 2022, he looks like he is back to the same player, and I expect another good season from the former Wolverine. He has been very durable playing in 17 games in back-to-back seasons, and with more attention being spread across the line in 2025, he could put enough pressure to surpass 7 sacks.
Even in a transition year, Sweat led the Bears with 5.5 sacks in 2024. Before that, he had 12.5, 6.5, 8, 5, and 7. Yes, he is getting up there in age in football years, but he is still just 28, and I believe he could be one of his best seasons as a pro. The Bears have put a lot of resources into this roster, and with that type of energy around, a team can breed some big-time playmaking. I believe 6 is way too low, and he should see 7+ again.
Since Matt LaFleur took over, the Packers have made the playoffs in five of six seasons, and I believe they will get back there this year. Last year, they went 11-6 with a top 10 scoring offense averaging 27.1 points per game. They added more weapons to the offense that stayed cohesive, and I believe they will build, not regress, off last year's momentum. That combination of coaching track record and offensive output provides a reasonable pathway to winning a Wild Card game and reaching the Divisional Round at plus money.
Potential Super Bowl Matchup?? Pairing the Packers with the Bills makes a lot of sense for almost +400 odds. Not too much to discuss here, I believe both have a great chance to go to conference championships this season!