In a rookie class that has a lot of questions, let’s take a look at some of the top players from each position. Cam Ward’s passing touchdown prop looks like a lock on the over, while Ashton Jeanty and Tet McMillan will have to see the touches to come close to their yard prop for this upcoming season.
Although Tennessee will still finish outside the playoff picture and will continue their rebuild throughout this season, attempting to keep up with opposing AFC offenses will be beneficial for rookie Cam Ward’s stats.
He will have Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Lockett, and some other young names, including Elic Ayomanor, who could produce early. Looking back at last season, all of Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels hit this mark.
While the Titans have a lot of work to do, Ward will be capable of throwing 19 passing touchdowns for a team that mixes a bad defense with solid-enough offensive weapons to make this happen.
I couldn’t tell you how bad the Las Vegas Raiders' offensive line would have to be for Jeanty not to hit this number. Jeanty rushing for nearly 1.1k yards isn’t all because he will live up to the hype of a top ten pick.
Last season, Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, and Chuba Hubbard all rushed for this prop mark. The point being, Jeanty will get enough carries over the course of the year to make it extremely difficult to fail this prop play.
He is projected around 270 attempts this upcoming season, which would be comparable to a Najee Harris and Tony Pollard, who sat around this prop mark but were much different and less versatile runners than Ashton.
The Panthers didn’t have a single player to go for more than 615 yards through the air last season (Adam Thielen). While the Tet McMillan addition changes things in Carolina, giving Bryce his first real outside target, Thielen, Hubbard, Dowdle, Legette, and some of the underneath guys might be getting involved earlier than Tet does this season.
While I believe Young’s TD numbers will rise with McMillan serving as his top red zone threat, the guys to hit this mark last season were MHJ, McConkey, Nabers, and Brian Thomas.
These were guys who either were monsters in the underneath game, serving as a safety valve or a one-on-one threat in a high-octane offense. McMillan doesn’t find himself in either of these categories, which is comparable to Rome Odunze (734 yards) and, in 2022, George Pickens (801 yards).