Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs! After a long four months of action, only eight teams remain in the hunt for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The action is heating up and we're looking to finish strong with our NFL wagers.
Kyren Williams stayed under his rushing yardage number to give us a 2-1 performance for Wild Card Weekend. Let's jump on a couple of player props to capture some early line value for the Divisional Round. Good luck and enjoy the games!
WSH at DET: 8:00 PM EST (Saturday 1/18)
Sometimes the sportsbooks don't factor in a player's current usage when setting player prop lines. I think this is one of those times! LaPorta's median receiving yardage is just 46.5 this season, but his target share has skyrocketed of late.
Over the last four games, Jared Goff has targeted LaPorta a whopping 32 times. I expect that trend to continue against a Washington defense that loves to pressure the QB. The Commanders rank 6th in sack rate and Dan Quinn loves to bring the blitz. That should mean lots of open space over the middle for LaPorta to roam.
According to PFF, LaPorta should get around 9 snaps against a safety. That's an insanely good matchup for the 6'3", 245-pound Iowa alum. My numbers show LaPorta racking up 61 receiving yards, so let's play the Over with confidence on Saturday night in the Motor City!
BAL at BUF: 6:30 PM EST (Sunday 1/19)
Yes, I know this play is probably about as sharp as a marble, but I just can't see how this Bills defense shuts down Derrick Henry. The former Alabama running back may be 31 years old, but he's running with more power than ever. Keep in mind that Henry torched Buffalo for 199 yards back in Week 4 of this season!
I love that the sportsbooks are listing Henry's rushing attempts at 19.5 and most are juicing the Over. If the Ravens do get Henry at least 20 carries, I think he sails over this rushing yardage number with relative ease. He's gone over this line in 4 straight ball games!
For the season, Henry's rushing yardage median is 119. He's gone over this total in 10 of his 17 ball games this season. Buffalo ranks just 19th in yards per rush allowed, so Tractorcito could have himself yet another big game. Let's play the Over!