A pair of 2024’s top 10 draft picks will square off on Sunday as the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons (8-7) travel north to play the Washington Commanders (10-5) in an important battle for playoff positioning on Sunday.
The Falcons plan to start Michael Penix Jr. for the second time on Sunday. The move to start a rookie quarterback is a curious one as Atlanta is tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South lead, and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins would give the franchise an experienced player under center for their playoff push.
Washington has stayed with their rookie quarterback all season. Former Heisman winner Jayden Daniels has been the spark to change this franchise’s fortunes, helping the Commanders win 10 games during the regular season for only the third time this century.
Which team will leave this matchup with their winning streak intact? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for this Week 17 contest.
Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is taking over a team that was built to compete this year. The Falcons have a strong running game, threats at each receiver position, and good defense; that’s enough to compete in the weakened NFC South.
Penix piloted the Falcons to a win in his first outing, beating New York 34-7. He was not sacked once, and he had time in his first NFL start to make throws. Penix finished 18-of-27 for 202 yards and an interception. The 24-year-old rookie did not throw a touchdown and struggled with down-the-field throws in this contest.
This is a recipe for disaster on Sunday. Washington’s defense is above average, and the Commanders have devoured young quarterbacks this season. Expect Penix to struggle against the Commanders and not cover this player prop bet.
The other rookie in this contest – Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels – looks like a seasoned veteran in comparison. Daniels has commanded the Commanders’ offense the entire season, completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,303 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight picks.
On the ground, he’s done even more damage. Daniels is his team’s leading rusher with 737 yards and six touchdowns on 128 carries. He’s averaging just under nine rushes per outing, but Daniels is getting nearly six yards on every attempt.
Expect him to pick his spots and rack up at leat 50 yards on the ground against a Falcons’ defense susceptible to rushing quarterbacks.
In his second season, Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson has proven why he was a top 10 player in last year’s draft. The 5-foot-11 athlete has 1,196 yards and 10 touchdowns on 259 carries, and he’s caught 56 of the 62 passes thrown his way for 420 yards and another score.
Against the Falcons on Sunday, I would load up the box and force Penix to pass the football to beat me if I were Washington’s defensive coordinator.
Robinson could struggle without Cousins’ presence in the backfield, so taking the under on this player prop bet is the wise move.
The Falcons moved the football well in Penix’s first game under center against the Giants. New York is no comparison to Washington, however.
Unless the Commanders have a terrible game or Atlanta throws in Cousins at the end, bettors should not take the Falcons. Expect the Commanders to take command of this game, winning it by at least a touchdown against Atlanta.