The Christmas Day slate kicks off the NFL action with a big showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers. With both teams chasing playoff positioning, there’s no shortage of big storylines and even bigger prop bets.
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So, we’re digging into the 5 best player prop picks for this matchup, mixing in some overs, unders, and even some juicy plus-money options. We think you’re going to love the Christmas joy you get from these.
Player Prop Odds: -115
Mahomes has been on an absolute tear this season. He leads the NFL in both completions and pass attempts while showing off his dual-threat ability in the last few weeks.
Against a Steelers defense ranked 20th against the pass with 220.67 yards allowed per game, we’re thinking that Mahomes should have plenty of opportunities to attack through the air.
The Chiefs average over 225 passing yards per game, which is pretty strong, and Mahomes has exceeded this combined yardage mark in 3 of his last 5 games. He’s got the arm and the options, so why not use it?
With Pittsburgh’s pass rush likely to force him out of the pocket pretty often, we expect Mahomes to tack on some decent rushing yards as well.
This prop feels like an easy Christmas present coming from one of the league’s best QBs.
Player Prop Odds: -115
George Pickens will unquestionably be in for a big day if he suits up.
The Chiefs’ secondary has been a bit inconsistent as of late as they’re allowing 215.8 passing yards per game. That’s good news for Pickens as he’s shown his ability to win one-on-one battles downfield. He’s averaging a solid 15.5 yards per catch — meaning he doesn’t need a huge volume of targets to hit this prop.
Pickens has topped 61.5 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and should be a focal point of the Steelers' offense if he returns from his hamstring injury.
If the Steelers find themselves trailing in the game, which they just might against a dominant Chiefs, we’re expecting Russell Wilson to look Pickens’ way early and often.
Player Prop Odds: +140
Najee Harris has been the indisputable heart of Pittsburgh’s offense in the red zone this season. He’s scored 5 TDs this season, and the Steelers will likely lean on him near the goal line to finish drives against a Chiefs defense ranked third in rushing yards allowed per game with 91.4.
If we were to guess how the game script would go for the Steelers, we’re thinking Pickens will get the drives to stretch the field and Harris will finish them off.
Kansas City’s stingy run defense makes this a bold pick, but Harris is also the kind of volume-driven player who thrives in high-leverage situations which he’ll undoubtedly face on Christmas Day.
At +140, there’s plenty of value in backing him to punch one into the end zone delivering a gift to those who take this prop bet.
Player Prop Odds: -115
While Pacheco has been, for the most part, solid this season, this is a tough matchup for the Chiefs’ lead back.
The Steelers rank 8th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at just 102.73 and could stack the box to force Kansas City to beat them through the air.
Pacheco has also seen his workload fluctuate over the last few weeks. With the Chiefs often turning to Kareem Hunt in short-yardage situations, Pacheco just might find his touches a bit limited.
He’s been held under this total in his last 2 games, and the Steelers' stout front 7 makes it likely he falls short from hitting this mark again.
Player Prop Odds: -170
It’s tough to ignore Kelce when it comes to props. It seems like he makes our prop list every time we cover a KC game.
The All-Pro TE is Mahomes’ favorite target and a fairly reliable option against a Steelers defense that has struggled to defend tight ends throughout the season.
Kelce is averaging 5.9 catches per game and has gone Over 4.5 receptions in 7 of his last 9 games. With that, it’s easy to see that he’s Mahome’s man.
The Steelers will need to focus their coverage on the Chiefs' star TE, but he’s a tough one. Kelce’s ability to find soft spots in the defense makes him a near-lock to hit this over — and we don’t say that lightly.
While the juice is pretty heavy at -170, the consistency makes it worth a play if you’re looking for a Christmas bonus.
This Chiefs-Steelers game offers tons of great betting angles with players like Mahomes, Pickens, and Harris taking center stage on the holiday.
Whether you’re betting on the overs, unders, or even hunting for plus-money chances to win big, these props provide a mix of safety and a bit of upside to add some extra excitement to your holiday football betting.
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