One of the more intriguing matchups of the NFL Week 16 betting board is Minnesota vs. Seattle. Can the Vikings keep flying high after their big win over the Bears on Monday Night Football? Sam Darnold and his receiving corps sure look like they have the ability to beat any team.
Things didn't go so well last week for Seattle. They were embarrassed on Sunday Night Football at the hands of Green Bay. Can the Seahawks shake off that loss and stay in the thick of their division race against the Rams?
Most online sportsbooks opened this line at Minnesota -1.5 on the look-ahead line. That line shot all the way up to Minnesota -4.5 after Seattle QB Geno Smith went down with a knee injury against Green Bay. After a positive MRI report, there was some buyback that pushed the line back to its current number of Minnesota -3.
The total has moved a ton already, which is understandable with the Smith news. The opening number of 45.5 has now been bet down to as low as 42.5 on some sports betting apps.
You have to hand it to Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell. His handiwork with Sam Darnold has been nothing short of remarkable. The former USC star has never looked this comfortable running an offense.
Darnold has thrown for 3530 yards and 29 TDs so far this season. As expected, his favorite go-to guy has been All-World WR Justin Jefferson, who has racked up 1243 receiving yards and 8 TDs. Stopping JJ will be a key for Seattle, but they better not sleep on Jordan Addison or TJ Hockenson.
Brian Flores has done such a phenomenal job with this Vikings defense, and that's the main reason why plenty of teams should be interviewing him for head coaching jobs. Flores loves to use lots of disguised blitzes and that strategy has paid off handsomely for Minnesota this season.
The biggest question for Seattle's offense is the health of QB Geno Smith. The former West Virginia star is listed as questionable, but head coach Mike Macdonald seems optimistic he'll play after a positive MRI on Monday. Smith is a tough dude and a bonafide gamer, so I expect him to suit up for the Seahawks in this vitally important matchup.
Unfortunately for Seattle, their top rushing threat is also banged up. Kenneth Walker has been dealing with a calf injury, but he did have a decent workout on Monday according to multiple reports. Thankfully for Seattle, the terrific trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains intact.
Seattle's defense has struggled with the run this year, but that's mainly due to injuries along its D-line. Over the last few weeks, the Seahawks have gotten substantially healthier in that area. This unit doesn't do a great job of getting pressure, but Leonard Williams leads the team with 7 sacks.
The health of Smith is a concern, but this is the perfect Buy Low / Sell High spot in my book. The whole world just watched Seattle get manhandled on Sunday Night Football. The whole world also just saw Minnesota look fantastic against a very bad Chicago team on Monday Night Football.
Seattle isn't as bad as they showed last week, and Minnesota isn't as good as they showed last week. The look-ahead line of Minnesota -1.5 is what I'd consider the correct line if Smith plays. Let's take a stab with the Seahawks as a home dog getting more than a field goal. Good luck!
Prediction: Seahawks 21 - Vikings 20