Saturday football is here and we’re excited for this one. The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans clash in one of the best Week 16 AFC matchups.
With playoff implications on the line, both teams are bringing tons of momentum into this Saturday showdown.
The Chiefs (13-1) sit atop the AFC standings and are doing everything they can to maintain the conference's No. 1 seed and stay a home throughout the playoffs. The Texans (9-5), on the other hand, are eager to just maintain their footing as the 4th seed in the AFC.
This is an early Saturday kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium so we’re going to get right to business with this pick.
Moneyline: Kansas City -185, Houston +154
Spread: Kansas City -3.5 at -105
Total: O/U 42.5 at -110
The Chiefs are coming into this game as 3.5-point favorites. That’s because they’re boasting a dominant 13-1 record and a perfect 7-0 mark at home. On top of that, they’re riding a solid 4-game winning streak and they’re fresh off a huge 21-7 win over Cleveland. Their defense has been nothing short of stellar as they’re allowing an average of 18.5 points per game. That pairs nicely with Patrick Mahomes’ consistency under center.
Meanwhile, the Texans are also looking to be in good shape as they’ve won 2 straight, including last week's gritty 20-12 win over the tough Dolphins. Houston has been a surprising road threat all season at 4-3, and their defense has been fairly solid as they’re surrendering just 21.4 points per game.
Overall, this is looking like it’ll be a great matchup to kick off the Saturday slate. We couldn’t ask for anything more.
Kansas City has a clear edge in experience and, of course, firepower.
Patrick Mahomes continues to be one of the league’s most dependable quarterbacks even though he hasn’t appeared to be his true self all season.
With 3,348 passing yards and 22 touchdowns, he’s been efficient enough all season to get the job done. In the past few years his numbers looked slightly better at this mark. His connection with Travis Kelce adds even more reliability to the dominant offense, as the veteran TE leads the team with 84 receptions for 709 yards. Those are elite numbers for a tight end and almost catching up to some wide receivers.
Additionally, Isaiah Pacheco has been a decently steady contributor on the ground. He’s rushed for 44+ yards in 6 straight games at Arrowhead Stadium. If they keep this up, this approach could help Kansas City keep the Texans’ defense off-balance.
Defensively, Kansas City thrives on limiting big plays. They’re always forcing opponents to grind out drives and make them work for every yard. Their ability to pressure CJ Stroud will undoubtedly make life difficult for Houston’s offense.
Houston isn’t without its weapons.
Running back Joe Mixon has been a huge force for the offense as he’s put together 910 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season. His ability to pound the ball on the ground will be the key to success in keeping Kansas City’s defense honest.
Nico Collins offers some explosiveness in the passing game. He leads the Texans with 849 receiving yards and 6 TDs. If QB play is solid, which we think it will be, the Texans have the pieces to attack the Chiefs' secondary and rip them apart.
All of that looks great and the Texans have a real chance, however, Houston will need its defense to stand tall if they’re going to keep this game competitive.
They’ve allowed opponents to score first in 9 consecutive games, a habit that needs to be broken if they hope to compete with a fast-starting Chiefs team. It’ll be a race for some points.
This game feels like it’s Kansas City’s game to lose.
Their home dominance (7-0), unquestionably elite defense, and Mahomes’ brilliance under pressure make them the safer pick for your Saturday afternoon bets.
The Texans have been a strong road team, of course, but their inability to control early momentum could hurt them here — especially at Arrowhead which is not a fun place for visiting teams to play at.
Our best bet is Kansas City to cover the 3.5-point spread (-185) with ease. With the Chiefs' defense allowing fewer than 19 points per game and the Texans' offense likely struggling to keep pace with overpowering offenses, Kansas City should control the game from start to finish and walk away from this game 14-1.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Chiefs 27, Texans 17