The Atlanta Falcons (6-7) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) for one of 2 Monday Night Football matchups in Week 15. While the Bears and the Vikings will duke it out in the NFC North, we’re just focusing on this game.
Both teams are desperate to end their losing streaks, but Atlanta has the clear edge heading into this game. They also have a bit more on the line as they’re fighting for a playoff spot and the Raiders, well, they’re dead last in the AFC and there’s no chance for them.
The Falcons are coming into tonight’s game as 5.5-point favorites with a total line of 44.5 points. Here’s how the odds stack up for this showdown—
Moneyline: Falcons -250, Raiders +195
Spread: Atlanta -5.5, Las Vegas +5.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Atlanta enters the matchup with a middling 5-8 record against the spread, while the Raiders also sit at 5-8 ATS. That’s a bit better than their regular season record would suggest.
The public betting percentages, however, tell a different story. They heavily favor the Falcons with 90% of bets and 75% of the money on Atlanta to cover the spread.
So, will the bettors beat the book in this matchup?
Despite losing 4 straight games, Atlanta still has an offense that ranks 7th in total yards per game with 371.
QB Kirk Cousins has been fairly steady with 3,396 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and an 89.0 QB rating. He’s looking better and better, but he's still not great.
The real star that stands out to us, though, is Bijan Robinson, who’s just 23 yards shy of a 1,000-yard rushing season which he might’ve already hit if it wasn’t for the other things he brings to the table. With 51 catches for 401 yards in the passing game, Robinson’s dual-threat ability will test a Las Vegas defense that ranks 31st in the NFL for points allowed at a staggering 27.8 per game.
Robinson is great on the ground, but this game seems like he might be used in the air a bit more.
Meanwhile, Drake London continues to deliver in key situations and never fails to come in big. The big-bodied WR leads Atlanta in receptions at 75 and TDs at 6 which makes him a prime target, especially in the red zone.
All of these seem like some good prop bets.
The Raiders have dropped a jaw-dropping 9 consecutive games, and their offense remains slow and stagnant.
They rank 27th in points scored at only 18.2 and are dead last in rushing yards per game with 79.1.
Aidan O’Connell’s uncertain status due to a bone bruise adds even more instability to the already struggling Raiders; however, even when healthy, O’Connell’s play has been fairly inconsistent, with just 4 TDs to 3 interceptions.
Easily the brightest spot for Las Vegas is Brock Bowers. He has been a fairly reliable playmaker with 87 receptions and 933 yards and comes into tonight as O’Connell’s favorite target. He’ll likely see plenty of targets again tonight, especially against a leaky Atlanta secondary, which allows 229 passing yards per game which is good for only 25th in the league. However, Bowers alone won’t be enough to keep the Raiders competitive if Atlanta’s offense hits its stride and it shouldn’t take much for that to happen.
On defense, LV isn’t looking much better. However, their edge rusher Maxx Crosby remains a force, racking up 7.5 sacks this season and hungry for more. It won’t do much for the team, but it will easily affect his trade value. The Raiders will need him to disrupt Cousins early and often to have any hope of slowing the Falcons’ attack.
The Falcons simply have more firepower on both sides of the ball and there’s no argument. Bijan Robinson should absolutely dominate the weak Raiders defense, while Kirk Cousins and Drake London make the most of Las Vegas’ struggles against the pass. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders’ anemic offense and QB uncertainty are hard to ignore.
So, how does this MNF matchup between the NFC and the AFC unfold?
Best Bet: Take Atlanta -5.5. The Falcons have too much talent to let this one slip away.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Falcons 27, Raiders 13.