The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) visit the Cleveland Browns (4-9) in a Week 15 matchup that we believe could prove trickier than it appears on the surface.
Kansas City comes in riding high with plenty of close wins (some might call this black magic), but the Browns have shown a few flashes of potential despite their pretty grim record. With the Chiefs listed as 4.5-point faves by the bookmakers, let’s dive into the odds, and game analysis, and wrap it all up with our best pick for this Sunday afternoon showdown.
The Chiefs have been walking a fine line week after week. We really have no idea how they manage to notch these wins.
While their 12-1 record is impressive, of course, their recent performances suggest quite a bit of vulnerability.
They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games by 3 points or fewer, relying on defensive plays and just a hint of luck.
Sure, Patrick Mahomes continues to anchor the offense, but recent games go to show his struggles in execution. Their defense, ranked 7th in points allowed per game (19.4), has helped seal wins for the middling offense. Mahomes just doesn’t seem to be himself this season.
On the other end of the field, Cleveland is 4-9 but has a few tools that might be able to put Kansas City to the test.
Jameis Winston has been airing it out more and more as of late. He’s averaging a fairly low 179.5 passing yards per game, but his 13 TDs are offset by an eye-watering 9 interceptions.
Jerry Jeudy has been the Browns’ star so far this year, racking up 944 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. If anyone can do it, he could exploit Kansas City's 20th-ranked passing defense.
Cleveland’s defense isn’t all that great as they’ve struggled particularly against the run. Through this week, they’ve allowed 127.9 yards per game which puts them at 22nd in the NFL.
Game Odds: Chiefs -4.5
Total Over/Under: 43.5
Kansas City enters as the clear favorite, and we’re not arguing against that. But Cleveland’s ability to score late and their strong pass rush (33 sacks, 13th in the league) shouldn’t be overlooked, either.
On paper, the Chiefs’ offense has a better matchup against a Browns defense which allows a dismal 25.8 points per game (26th in the NFL).
But if Kansas City’s offensive line falters, Cleveland’s Myles Garrett and company will undoubtedly create some pressure and get Mahomes to either scramble or throw off-balanced passes — both of which he’s not necessarily bad at.
One critical edge for Kansas City is their ball security.
They’ve committed just 10 turnovers all season compared to Cleveland’s 11. So, both aren’t that bad with the turnovers. However, the Chiefs’ running game is generating 110.6 yards per game and they’re facing a Browns defense that is only ranked 22nd against the run.
With that, Kareem Hunt’s physical style might be the key to exploiting Cleveland’s weaknesses and getting the ball into the end zone.
Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 5 games, but this matchup feels closer than the spread suggests.
Winston’s high-risk, high-reward passing attack could exploit Kansas City’s defensive backfield. This is especially true if Jeudy finds space — and he usually does.
However, Kansas City’s offense, led by Mahomes and Travis Kelce, is too experienced to let a struggling Browns squad outscore them consistently throughout the game. We’re thinking the Chiefs inch out a W but not by much.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Kansas City 24, Cleveland 20
Best Bet: Cleveland +4.5
The Browns’ recent struggles and Kansas City’s penchant for super close games make the underdog spread a good bet.
21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-877-770-7867(CO), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Call or text 877-718-5543 or visit morethanagame.nc.gov (NC). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-888-532-3500 (VA).