The Thanksgiving night showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers is going to have plenty of betting opportunities. With freezing temperatures at Lambeau Field and 2 teams with contrasting styles and lots on the line, there’s value all over the place in this game for some player prop picks.
We’ve whipped together some of the best player props to take advantage of as you digest that full meal on Thanksgiving night.
Player Prop Odds: Over 5.5 (+125)
This is a plus-money prop worth considering. With Miami’s offense likely leaning on short passes in the frigid conditions, we couldn’t pass this one up.
Tyreek Hill has seen a decline in deep-ball opportunities as of late, but his role as a high-volume target in the short game is still there and he’s moving the chains.
Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, and with Green Bay’s aggressive secondary forcing Miami into quick decisions, we can easily see Hill clearing 6 catches.
While the cold is a big factor, the Packers’ secondary is missing star cornerback Jaire Alexander, leaving Hill to take advantage of less experienced defenders. Plus, Hill has already hit 6+ receptions in 5 of his last 8 games.
The value at +125 is undoubtedly coming from the freezing temps of Lambeau, but it’s a great pick.
Player Prop Odds: Over 91.5 (-120)
Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse for Green Bay. He’s getting more and more involved at the perfect time.
Coming off a monster 3-touchdown game against the 49ers, Jacobs now faces a Dolphins defense that has already allowed the 11th-most yards after missed tackles this season. The cold will only make him better at this. Jacobs is 4th in the NFL in missed tackles forced and should have no problem feasting against Miami’s linebackers.
Jacobs’ versatility as a pass-catcher adds even more value here. He’s a dynamic threat that is hard to contain. He’s been targeted at least 4 times in 3 of his last 5 games and averages 13.5 receiving yards per game. With a high-volume workload in a cold-weather game like tonight’s game, Jacobs blowing through 91.5 total yards feels like a strong bet.
Player Prop Odds: Under 49.5 (-120)
Jaylen Waddle exploded for 144 yards in Week 12, but we simply don’t expect a repeat performance against the Packers.
Green Bay’s defense has been solid at limiting big plays over the past few games, and the icy weather won’t help Tagovailoa’s ability to find Waddle on the short and intermediate routes.
Miami’s offense may also pivot to a more run-heavy approach or rely on shorter, safer throws to Tyreek Hill and other RBs. With Tua struggling in cold-weather games (6 TDs, 8 INTs in his coldest career starts), Waddle will most likely see fewer opportunities tonight.
He’s been held under 50 yards in 6 games this season, and Green Bay’s game plan will likely emphasize containing Miami’s deep threats. Take the under on Waddle for tonight.
Player Prop Odds: Over 55.5 (-115)
If there’s one Dolphins player built for this matchup, it’s De’Von Achane. He’s the one we’re really watching on this side of the ball.
The rookie running back is explosive and thrives in open space, but his ability to turn small plays into chunk gains will be critical in freezing conditions if Miami wants to keep the tempo up.
Sure, Miami’s offensive line has struggled, but Achane’s 6.8 yards per carry this season speaks to his ability to create his own lanes and routes into the secondary.
Green Bay’s run defense ranks middle-of-the-pack, allowing 4.2 yards per carry, and they’ve had issues tackling in this area. With McDaniel likely dialing up a run-heavy game script to account for the weather, we think Achane has a great chance to hit this number.
Player Prop Odds: Over 1.5 (+115)
Jordan Love has quietly turned into one of the NFL’s most efficient deep-ball passers. Sure, he’s had ups and downs, but he can find the end zone.
He ranks second in the league in deep passing yards (640) and has thrown 4 touchdowns on passes of 20+ yards so far in the season. Against a Dolphins defense that struggles to defend the deep ball (3rd highest passer rating allowed on deep throws), Love should be able to make the most of the situation.
With Josh Jacobs setting up the run game, Love will have plenty of opportunities to attack downfield off play-action.
The Dolphins have allowed multiple passing TDs in 4 of their last 6 games, and Love’s confidence in taking deep shots makes this plus-money prop a smart play. Expect interceptions, but he’ll find the end zone.
Whether it’s betting on Tyreek Hill’s short-area dominance, Josh Jacobs’ workhorse role on the ground game, or Jordan Love’s efficiency in the passing game and finding the end zone, there’s tons of value in this Packers-Dolphins matchup.
Each pick here offers a mix of decent odds and matchup trends.