Mims' Thursday Night Football Picks: Jaguars vs Saints, Derek Carr prop bet, Trevor Lawrence status key

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints square off on Thursday Night Football. The Saints are favored by 1 and the total is 40 The money line is Jaguars +102 and Saints -122.  New Orleans  is the home team.

The Records: Jags are 4-2 for the season and 4-2 against the spread. Saints are 3-3 for the season and 1-4-1 ATS.

Coaching Match Up: Jaguars Head Coach Doug Pederson over Saints Head Coach Dennis Allen. Pederson has turned the Jags around and they are the best team in AFC South. Allen has not had success as a head coach. This is his second year as the leader of the Saints. His overall record as a head coach with the Raiders and the Saints is 18-41.

Quarterback: Jags Trevor Lawrence and Saints Derek Carr. Lawrence is questionable for the game with a knee injury. Carr has similar numbers to Lawrence this season. Lawrence is more prolific as a runner. If Lawrence does play, he gets a slight edge because of his ability to avoid the rush.

Player Props: Derek Carr under 236,5 passing yards. The price is -138. The Jags allow the most passing yards in the NFL. Carr will be without both his starting offensive tackle and their back up. Expect them to pressure Carr. Take him under!

The consensus: Jags have 60% of the action and the total is 54% going under.

The Selection: The Jags have won three straight while the Saints have lost 3 of their last 4. If Lawrence were healthy taking the Jags would be the obvious choice. The Saints have a record of 8-10 on Thursday Night Football. If Lawrence starts the game, the Jags are the play. If he does not, then just take the game under.

On Monday, I will preview the Monday Night Football featuring the San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings. My record on MNF is 11-6 with 1 push this season.

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