Analyzing the Odds: How to Predict the Outcomes of NFL Games

Predicting the outcomes of NFL games can be quite tricky. Read on to find out how to analyze the odds.

Analyzing the Odds: How to Predict the Outcomes of NFL Games

Trying to predict an NFL game's outcome can be a very difficult task when it comes to betting on sports. There are so many different factors that can affect any single game, and no one can know for sure who will win. There are, however, some ways to increase your odds of correctly predicting which team is most likely to win.

In the same way, you would look for NHL stars in hockey teams, you should analyze starting line-ups in NFL teams and look for stand-out players. These star players increase the chance of a team winning, and using statistics will also give you a better understanding of how well a team has been performing recently. Below we will go through some important factors you should consider before making any bets on the outcome of an NFL game.

Factors that can Affect the Game

Before you start placing any bets on an NFL team, you need to gather the information that will allow you to gauge how strong a particular team is and, therefore, their chance of winning. This includes looking at things such as the team's quality and other factors, including game conditions and even recent results.

Team Quality

When it comes to NFL betting, many people tend to just look at a team's quarterback and decide who is more likely to win. Although the quality of the quarterback is an important factor, you should look at every player and judge the strength of the team as a collective versus another team. Whilst analyzing the quality of a team, it is important to understand the balance of strength amongst a squad. For example, if a team has a single superstar player but is surrounded by average players, then that team will be less likely to win versus a team full of above-average players. If that star player gets injured,, then they are even less likely to defeat the stronger opponents.

Game Conditions


The conditions of a game can greatly impact the outcome between two teams. Some teams perform better in adverse weather conditions, so it is important to factor this into your decision-making. The venue of a particular game is also important to consider, especially when 60% of all games are won by the NFL team playing at home. Some venues are more intimidating than others which can throw players off as they struggle to rise to the big occasion. On top of this, the traveling some teams have to do to play a game can affect an individual’s performance. If, for example, a team from the East coast has to travel to the West coast, they risk suffering from fatigue and having a lesser performance. 

Additional Factors

It is always important to look back at the recent results of both teams that are scheduled to play against each other. Teams that are on a winning streak in recent games are much more likely to play with confidence and believe in themselves to continue picking up victories. On the other hand, teams that have suffered several recent defeats may feel less confident and demotivated to put on a strong performance. This isn’t black and white, as some teams actually perform at a higher level following a defeat, especially if it was a narrow loss. This means you have to weigh up the match history of each team and determine how this may impact the match coming up.

Injuries play a massive role in a team's overall strength, so before you place a bet, it is important to look at the injury report, which may show which key players are out for the coming game. On the other hand, if you find that a team is suffering from an injury of an important player, but there are adequate replacements, then you might have confidence in the team performing at a good level. 

Using Statistics

Watching NFL games gives you an overall idea of how well a team is currently performing, but if you want to truly understand the weaknesses and strengths within a squad, you have to look at statistics. Statistics allow you to compare two teams and analyze which team is likely to bring home the victory.

Points Per Game


One of the most simple statistics that should be considered is the points per game of each team. This is the total number of points a team has accumulated throughout the season divided by the number of games played. This statistic gives you a good idea about how many points you can expect a team to score and compare it with the opposition. 

Yards Per Game

Another important statistic to look at is the yards per game that a team makes. This gives you some understanding of how a team plays so you can compare it with the style of the opposition, allowing you to judge how the game might play out.

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