Alloy Forecast: NFL Championship Weekend – 49ers vs Eagles, Bengals vs Chiefs
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It is officially championship week in the NFL! The Super Bowl matchup will be determined this weekend and we couldn’t be more excited! This week, we have strategies pointing in all different directions. The line has also moved modestly on the Bengals-Chiefs game throughout the week. We'll highlight our top strategies with picks for this week’s Alloy Forecast.
Bet Me Consistently Strategy:
Teams that fit the Bet Me Consistently strategy are close underdogs playing on the road. This strategy factors in teams that end drives with touchdowns and run the ball well. If you have bet this strategy consistently, especially of recent time, you have been hitting gold!
Since 2021, the Bet Me Consistently strategy has been most profitable for close underdogs against the spread. Close underdogs have won over 65% of games with an 81 game sample size. The return on investment is 26%.
49ers +2.5 @ Eagles
QB & D Strategy:
The QB & D strategy factors in accurate passing, strong overall QB play and a turnover forcing defense. The strategy filtered in teams on a winning streak. This week, both the 49ers have strong quarterbacks and defense. This week it gives a slight edge to San Francisco.
Since 2020, the QB & D strategy has been most profitable for close underdogs against the spread. Close underdogs have won over 63% of games with a 78 game sample size. The return on investment is 21%.
49ers +2.5 @ Eagles
Balanced O Strategy:
The Balanced O strategy looks at teams with a high number of rushing attempts per game, focusing on those committed to the run game. With the passing game, we modeled this for teams that drive value in the passing game. We used a lower number of pass attempts per game with a higher number of passing yards per attempt. Think play action success with teams that establish the run and get creative in pass schemes. The system also takes into account the upcoming opponent. It looks specifically at teams opponents coming off a win.
Since the start of this season, the Balanced O strategy has been profitable for close favorites against the spread. Close favorites have won over 58% of games yielding an ROI of 13%.
Eagles -2.5 vs. 49ers
Chiefs -1 vs. Bengals