Alloy Forecast: NFL Divisional Playoffs
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We have reached the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. Will this upcoming week top last week’s action and entertainment? If it’s anything close, we’ll be in for a treat.
When it comes to betting the games, one season long trend continued to prove profitable in the first weekend of postseason play: betting the underdogs! The dogs won at a 55% rate throughout the course of the season and went 4-2 on super wild card weekend.
Last week, three Alloy strategies predicted perfect betting weekends. In this week's Alloy Forecast, we’ll be highlighting two more strategies for you to analyze to increase your chances at winning. Both strategies had perfect wild card weekends and were built on Alloy Pro.
Bet Me Consistently Strategy:
Teams that fit the Bet Me Consistently strategy are close underdogs playing on the road. This strategy factors in teams that end drives with touchdowns and run the ball well. If you have bet this strategy consistently, especially of recent time, you have been hitting gold!
Since 2021, the Bet Me Consistently strategy has been most profitable for close underdogs against the spread. Close underdogs have won over 65% of games with an 81 game sample size. The return on investment is 26%.
On super wild card weekend, this strategy went 2-0 against the spread.
Cowboys +4 @ 49ers
Defensive Pressures Strategy:
The Defensive Pressures strategy looks at defensive stats that may be overlooked by the oddsmakers when generating spread lines. We know that sacks and turnovers are popular and accounted for. We conceptualized a strategy that would combine multiple underlying defensive stats. The thinking was the stats that lead to pressure, sacks and turnovers would be overlooked.
The Defensive Pressures strategy is successful for all underdogs against the spread this season. This week, we’re going to focus on heavy underdogs. For heavy underdogs, 67% of games have been won against the spread yielding a 27% return on investment.
Last week, the Defensive Pressures strategy went 3-0 ATS.
Jaguars +9 @ Chiefs
Giants +7.5 @ Eagles
Bengals +5.5 @ Bills