Alloy NFL Forecast: Super Wild Card Weekend

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It is the best time of the year in the NFL. We’ve officially made it to the NFL playoffs and super wild card weekend! All season we’ve shared new betting strategies on a weekly basis for our Alloy Forecasts. We built over a dozen profitable betting models for you to bet with. During the playoffs, we will highlight successful strategies from previous Alloy Forecasts. For super wild card weekend, we’re sharing two powerful strategies backtested for success. These strategies were built on Alloy Pro.

One thing to be wary of this week is the teams with quarterback injuries. The betting lines become more unpredictable when a team's starting quarterback is unable to play (Miami & Baltimore). Be cautious to bet these games as the data does not account for the replacement quarterback.

The Road Grader Strategy:

Strategy Details:

The Road Grader Strategy was built for teams with a power rushing attack and a disciplined offense. We’re looking to bet on teams that feature a strong rushing attack with more broken tackles and fewer offensive penalty yards per game than their upcoming opponent. In filters, we found success looking specifically at road teams.

Results:

Since 2019, the Road Grader strategy has been most profitable for heavy underdogs against the spread. Heavy underdogs have won over 56% of games with a 124 game sample size. The return on investment is 10%. 

Upcoming games:

Dolphins +13.5 @ Bills

Ravens +9.5 @ Bengals

Ground n’ Pound Strategy: 

Strategy Details:

The Ground n’ Pound strategy was built for strong rushing teams. In a nod to Rex Ryan, this strategy was modeled for teams that are willing to play smash mouth football. The strategy incorporates rushing first downs, broken tackles and touchdowns. It specifically looks at in-conference games.

Results:

Ground n’ Pound is successful for all underdogs against the spread. For close underdogs, 58% of games have been won since 2019 with a 14% ROI. For heavy underdogs, 58% of games have been won as well yielding a 13% ROI.

Upcoming Games:

Jaguars +2.5 vs. Chargers

Giants +3 @ Vikings

Ravens +9.5 @ Bengals