Alloy's NFL Week 18 Forecast: Dome Strategy

Happy New Year NFL Bettors! Somehow, some way, we’ve reached Week 18 of the NFL season. The season has been profitable and fun since launching the Alloy app in September. We have built and shared great strategies and data sets. It has been a blast working with the football community in the growing betting space. For this week’s Alloy Forecast, we are unveiling our final betting strategy for this year. This strategy relies on one filter specifically to build a sample size and it’s been quite profitable over the past few seasons.

This week, we introduce the Dome Strategy. We hypothesized that certain teams play more effectively in an enclosed environment. We sorted through a few different filters and found some successful results across a few different buckets. 

What’s in the strategy?

The Dome Strategy only factors in games played, well, in a dome. With perfect weather conditions, there’s no need to worry about offenses struggling due to the snow, rain or cold temperatures. This strategy looks at teams with a higher number of total yards per game and fewer scrambles per game. We found teams with a dynamic offense and strong offensive line, excel in this scenario. The filter used was indoor stadium type.

The Dome Strategy was built using Alloy Pro.

What does the data show?

The data shows profitability for all underdogs against the spread since the start of the 2020 season. 

Heavy underdogs performed the best with a 16% ROI and 59% win percentage. Close underdogs yielded a 12% ROI with a 57% win percentage. 

What gets interesting is when you run the Dome Strategy and add an away filter, looking at results of road teams only. In this scenario, close underdogs have won 70% of games since 2020 yielding an ROI of 38%. Close favorites are also profitable in this strategy, winning 63% of games with a 19% ROI.

Here are your Week 18 games to bet with the Dome Strategy:

* Pro Tip: Make sure to check the team reports on who is starting in Week 18. Some teams that have already clinched playoff berths may be resting key starters. If that is the case, you may want to reconsider betting on those games.

Buccaneers +4.5 @ Falcons