Alloy's NFL Week 16 Forecast: Balanced O Strategy

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It’s Week 16 in the NFL season and we have built another great data-backed NFL system for you to bet with. We’ve witnessed wild and historic games as of late and we wanted to protect ourselves with a system that can be dependable. Alloy's NFL Week 16 Forecast uses our Balanced O Strategy.

Teams that make the playoffs and advance deep in the postseason generally have a balanced offense to keep the opposing team guessing. One dimensional teams typically get figured out by this time.

Given a near complete sample size for this season, we backtested the system for this year only. Though the Balanced O Strategy has been profitable since 2018, 2022 indicates that it’s been trending upward as of late. The system has been winning across multiple spread and moneyline ranges this season. It was built using Alloy Pro.

What’s in the strategy?

The Balanced O Strategy incorporates three stats and one filter. We’re looking for teams with a high number of rushing attempts per game, focusing on those committed to the run game. With the passing game, we modeled this for teams that drive value in the passing game. We used a lower number of pass attempts per game with a higher number of passing yards per attempt. Think play action success with teams that establish the run and get creative in pass schemes. The system also takes into account the upcoming opponent. It looks specifically at teams opponents coming off a win.

What does the data show?

Against the spread, close favorites and heavy underdogs are performing exceptionally well this season. Both buckets are showing returns on investment greater than 15%.

Close favorites ATS have won 59% of games (19-12-1), yielding a 16% return on investment.

Heavy underdogs, though a slightly smaller sample size, have performed the best this season. They have played to a win percentage of 71% (10-4), with a return on investment of 36%. 

On the moneyline, favorites across the board have performed at an elite level. Heavy favorites have won 88% of games straight up (14-2), and close favorites have won 67% of games (22-11). Both ROI’s exceed 12%.

Here are your Week 16 games to bet with the Balanced O Strategy:

Heavy Underdogs (10-4 ATS)

Seahawks +10 @ Chiefs

Bears +8 vs Bills

Close Favorites (19-12-1 ATS, 22-11 ML)

Browns -3, -150 vs Saints

Steelers -2.5,-135 vs Raiders