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Alloy's NFL Week 13 Forecast: Run & Defend after a Loss Strategy

The strategy combines attributes where we have found betting success this season. The model looks for teams with a strong rushing attack, solid defense and a loss in their previous game.

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We have reached week 13 of the NFL season! To this point, we’ve been able to identify certain trends that lead to winning. This week, we are doubling down on stats and filters that we’ve found success with this season. Our NFL Week 13 Forecast is the Run & Defend after a Loss strategy.

Previous Alloy Forecast strategies that inspired us to build this new system were the Ground n’ Pound, Defensive Pressures, Road Grader and Bounce Back strategies. Read more about these strategies here.

What’s in the strategy?

The Run & Defend after a Loss strategy combines attributes where we have found betting success this season. The model looks for teams with a strong rushing attack, solid defense and a loss in their previous game.

The Run & Defend after a Loss strategy was built on Alloy Pro.

Stats

Higher rushing yards per game than upcoming opponent
Higher QB hurries per game than upcoming opponent
Higher first downs per game than upcoming opponent
Fewer completions allowed per game than upcoming opponent

Filter

Consecutive Losses >= 1

What does the data show?

Since 2019, this strategy has been cashing out for close underdogs (+0.5 - +5 odds). No other spread range is profitable, but close underdogs have struck gold. This strategy has a substantial win rate and sample size. It has consistently produced results in 2022.

Since 2019:

Record: 72-39-2

Win PCT: 64%

Return on Investment: 23%

This season:

Record: 21-10-0

Win PCT: 68%

Return on Investment: 29%

Note: The moneyline has profitable as well. This year, close underdog moneyline bets have gone 14-11 (56% win rate). If you bet every game this season with a $20 unit size, you would be up $156.40.

Here are your Week 13 games to bet with the Run & Defend after a Loss strategy:

Patriots +4.5 vs Bills

Giants +2.5 vs Commanders

Bears +5 vs Packers

Saints +3.5 @ Buccaneers

NFL