Alloy's NFL Week 10 Forecast: The Defensive Pressures Strategy
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Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us! If you tuned into last week’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Ravens and Saints, you may have seen ESPN’s trailer for their newest 30 for 30, “Bullies of Baltimore.” This will chronicle the 2000 Ravens defense, known as one of the greatest of all-time.
For this week's Alloy Forecast we kept defense in mind. Today, we unveil our Defensive Pressures strategy. This strategy looks at defensive stats that may be overlooked by the oddsmakers when creating spread lines. We know that sacks and turnovers are popular and accounted for so we conceptualized a strategy that would combine multiple underlying defensive stats. The thinking was the stats that lead to pressures, sacks and turnovers would be overlooked. We were right!
What’s in the strategy?
The Defensive Pressures strategy factors in QB hits per game, hurries per game, and forced fumbles per game. There are no filters in this strategy, as the entire sample size proved to be very successful dating back to 2018.
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What does the data show?
Underdogs that fit the Defensive Pressures strategy cover spreads and win bets. Since 2018, close underdog bets have yielded a 13% return on investment with a sample size of 283 games. It is time-tested.
This strategy has been on fire in 2022 and has been trending upwards for a few years. This season, ALL underdogs that fit this strategy have won 64% of games, yielding a 22% ROI. The sample size this season is 58 games, a large number for the NFL through just 9 weeks.
Here are your Week 10 games to bet with the Defensive Pressures Strategy:
Pro Tip: We’ve already seen line movement in the Seahawks, Vikings, Browns, and Colts games. Get these bets in before the odds decrease in your favor.
Panthers (+2.5) vs. Falcons (TNF)
Seahawks (+2.5) @ Buccaneers
Broncos (+2.5) @ Titans
Browns (+3.5) @ Dolphins
Lions (+2.5) @ Bears
Vikings (+3.5) @ Bills
Colts (+6) @ Raiders
Cardinals (+1.5) @ Rams