Alloy's NFL Week 2 Forecast: The Peanut Punch Strategy looks at teams that force fumbles
This article is highlighting a profitable backtested strategy from Alloy Sports. Plug this strategy in and see what games to bet on. Or create your own. Click here to sign up for free!
It is great to be back in the full swing of the NFL season! Week 1 provided the drama and excitement that fans have been missing for the last few months.
Week 2 presents another great slate of matchups and our Alloy forecast for this week has a play on the first, and arguably best, game of the week.
Our forecast will focus on the second pre-loaded strategy for every user who makes a free Alloy account. It is the Peanut Punch Strategy. The name was penned in respect to former Chicago Bear, Charles Tillman. Tillman was notorious for punching the ball out of ball carriers arms. Marlon Humphrey, of the Baltimore Ravens, has built a similar reputation more recently.
The strategy focuses on strong defensive teams that force turnovers, specifically fumbles. We used a filter to only look at interdivisional games when this would occur.
What does the data show?
The Peanut Punch strategy was backtested for over two years and yielded a strong return on investment. Our results show a positive ROI in teams that fit this strategy that fall in the heavy favorites and close underdogs categories. The close underdogs performed at the higher rate.
Win %: 57%
ROI: 14%
The sample size for the last two years of games qualified is 47. If you’d like to build a stronger sample size to feel more comfortable with the data, backtest it even further. You have the capability to go back as far as 2013.
Here are your Week 2 games to bet with the Peanut Punch Strategy:
*Tip - Remember that it is best to gather a good chunk of in-season data to best predict performance from current teams. It’s still very early in the season to feel overly confident in certain games by solely relying on historical data.
Chargers (+4.5) at Chiefs (TNF)
Saints (+3) vs. Buccaneers