Alloy Sports NFL Week 1 Football Betting Strategy: 'The Road Grader' offers 3 picks
This article is highlighting a profitable backtested strategy from Alloy Sports. Plug this strategy in and see what games to bet on. Or create your own. Click here to sign up for free!
We have finally made it to Week 1 in the NFL!
This season, Alloy Sports will be providing the most powerful sports betting research tool in the form of a mobile app. Just like the NBA playoffs, we will be sharing successful betting strategies that our team has built. We will work together to win more bets this NFL season!
When you download the app for free, you’ll see that we have pre-loaded two successful strategies. This week’s Alloy forecast will focus on the Road Grader Strategy.
The Road Grader Strategy incorporates two stats and a filter. For this strategy, we looked at teams with a power rushing attack and a disciplined offense. This strategy looks at teams possessing a rushing attack with more broken tackles and fewer offensive penalty yards per game than their upcoming opponent. In filters, we found success looking specifically at away teams.
What does the data show?
This strategy is backtested over the course of two seasons. Our results show that this strategy is profitable when our team to bet is in the heavy or close underdogs bucket ATS. When specifically looking at close underdogs, here are the historical results:
Win %: 58%
Return on Investment: 15%
When betting, win percentage and overall record are important factors to evaluate, making sure that your sample size is significant enough to feel confident in your strategy’s results. Return on investment (ROI), however, is the metric you want to monitor the most. A positive ROI means you are making a profit. From the Road Grader Strategy, we’ve discovered a powerful ROI of 15%. That number is significant for winning bettors.
Here are your Week 1 games to bet with the Road Grader Strategy:
*Tip - Remember that these strategies do not factor in injuries or back ups. Cleveland, don't forget to use your intuition when backing your team with a backup QB in Jacoby Brissett.
Browns (+2) at Panthers
Patriots (+4) at Dolphins
Raiders (+4) at Chargers