Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC . . . Bring an abacus
It has been a looooong, strrrange summer, but finally there is a sense of normalcy on the horizon because on Thursday night we will be able to place one of our most favorite bets of all-time:
Layering the Alternative Points Totals in a Kansas Chiefs Game.
In the two years that Patrick Mahomes has been the starter, there have been 1,767 points scored in Kansas City’s 32 regular season games, over 1,000 of that by the Chiefs themselves.
That has led to an Over/Under Record (including the postseason) of 21-13-3. And even that does not do the betting aspect in it justice until you see that 12 of those Overs have been by double-digits and another four by at least seven points.
(We are still living off some of the money we made inthat 54-51 loss to the Rams two seasons ago . . . )
Here is a game-by-game look where each KC game fell in relation to a fairly consensus O/U:
So, the thought behind our process is to make all those extra points work for us. Rather than laying $50 to win $45.50 on a single, old run-of-the-mill Over, let us sit back and root, root, root for every point put up on the scoreboard.
In case you have forgotten, here is the process:
Instead of a straight bet of, say, $50 on the main O/U (54.5 in most cases for Thursday’s game), let’s split it in half and lay $25 on the first Alternative Total (AT) that will yield positive odds. That means $25 to win $26.50 on Over 55.5 (+115). We will take the remaining $25 and sprinkle it on the ATs up to and including Over 83.5.
The higher the better, but as long as the teams combine for 56 or more points, you are going home a winner. (If they don't, it is just as though you have lost a noral O/U wager.)
Since FanDuel usually has the best ATs going, we will use them exclusively for this opener, but feel free to shop around if you’d like. Also, you don’t need to bet every level as we do here. We did just because it is the opener and we fell the offenses will be all warm and tingly inside.
We put a little more cash on the totals just above out main bet (two bets of $4, then two of $3 and then a $2) before easing out a staking a single George Washington to finish out the run. By the time the score gets to the $1 bets, we are well past the money we would have made with a straight O/U bet and are staring at a big payout.
If you want to be more selective on which layers to bet (or if you want to bet less – say $10/$10 instead of $25/$25), pay attention to the increase in odds for each point increment. For instance:
The increase in odds from the 55.5 to the 57.5 on FanDuel is 35 (+105 to +140). The next step yields another 35 (to +175), then 45, 60, 80, 90 and 100 (to +550 for Over 69.6). The next two steps are two more 100s, but then a big jump of 250 (+750 to +1000) before two more jumps of 100. If you are picking and choosing your levels, be sure to not miss that 250 jump in odds for a mere two points.
And if you are doing this, never ignore the big money, even for the lowest stake. In this case the Over 81.5 (+2700) and 83.5 (+3800) are well worth the minimal risk since they can turn the end of the game into something verrrrrry special.
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CHIEFS-TEXANS TOTAL POINTS (FD)
$25/$26.25 . . . Over 55.5 (+115)
$4/$5.60 . . . . Over 57.5 (+140)
$4/$7.00 . . . . Over 59.5 (+175)
$3/$6.60 . . . . Over 61.5 (+220)
$3/$8.40 . . . . Over 63.5 (+280)
$2/$7.20 . . . . Over 65.5 (+360)
$1/$4.50 . . . . Over 67.5 (+450)
$1/$5.50 . . . . Over 69.5 (+550)
$1/$6.50 . . . . Over 71.5 (+650)
$1/$7.50 . . . . Over 73.5 (+750)
$1/$10.00 . . . Over 75.5 (+1000)
$1/$11.00 . . . Over 77.5 (+1100)
$1/$12.00 . . . Over 79.5 (+1200)
$1/$27.00 . . . Over 81.5 (+2700)
$1/$38.00 . . . Over 83.5 (+3800)