Welcome to Super Bowl Week! Let’s start it all off with a sure thing . . .
The Over/Under for length of the longest touchdown is 44.5. That is yards, not meters (which would be 48.5 yards) or city blocks (which might be a fairer bet). Have you not watched the Chiefs’ high-octained offense?
It is not just the 13 touchdowns scored by Kansas City of at least 45 yards, nor the four they have allowed. Or that the 49ers have gone that long themselves six times, their opponents thrice. Or even that we expect a lot of touchdowns to be scored (10 is the Super Bowl record; 13 is the postseason record).
But if you go through the entire season, at least one of these teams had a TD of 45 yards or longer occur in their game in 17 of the 19 weeks they have played. Soon, it will be 18 out of 20, even though the Under of this has played out in five of the last six Super Bowls. (see charts)
As you can see, the 44.5 is the lowest total posted for this prop in four Super Bowls. I have no idea why and I don’t care, as long as it cashes. And it will.
Longest TD Over 44.5 Yards (-112) . . . $10 / $9
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>>> The 49ers defense has more interceptions in their two playoff games this 2019 postseason (3) than they did in their entire 2018 regular season (2). They did manage the NFL-average 13 picks in the 2019 regular season, but just one in their last nine games before the playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes has never thrown a postseason interception and has just seven picks over the last 400+ days. Don’t count on any Sunday in Miami.
Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Under 0.5 (-137) . . . $10 / $7.30