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WEEK 3 RECORD: 4-1
One stinking, lousy backdoor cover by a point in the Ravens-Chiefs game and I lose out on a perfect week.
WEEK 4 (picks in CAPS)
Kansas City -7 at DETROIT
Liked the Chiefs at first in this one as they have owned the first half of the season in recent years SU and ATS, and seem to be on a mission, and this is historically a spot where Lions follow an inspiring win with a clunker. But in what should be high-scoring affair, points are attractive. Last team with ball may decide cover.
WASHINGTON +3 at New York Giants
Giants got a visit from the Tooth Fairy last week in Tampa, and hard to see them dominating division foe desperate to avoid going 0-4 with New England on tap next. Hunch ‘Skins’ defense gets it together with a week to prepare for Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley-less offense.
SEATTLE -5 at Arizona
This line jumped from 3 to as high as 5½, and while the trends favor the Cards I like Seattle to rebound from embarrassing home loss to Brees-less Saints. Cards have 2 wins, 3 losses by a total of 12 points and a tie in the last 6 vs. ‘hawks, but feeling is bloom may be off the rose in the Land of the Sun after encouraging opener.
OAKLAND +7 at Indianapolis
Trends also against the Raiders here (2-13-1 as road ‘dog), but I’m using the same logic I used in picking the Eagles Thursday night - a team capable of playing better than it has so far, against a team that may be a little overvalued right now (and has a revenger at KC next week).
NEW ENGLAND -7 at Buffalo
Perception is that Bills have “played the Patriots close” in recent years, but reality is they’re 3-28 SU. Don’t see a blowout here, and it may be a one-score game late, but confident Pats can cover generous road number and run the table in stretch of three straight divisional games.