After seeing the confirmation that Andrew Luck has indeed announced his retirement from the NFL, I immediately went to check the wins total and future odds of the Colts winning their conference. Colts odds of winning the conference were at + 1400. The odds of the Colts winning the division are +240. Before the announcement the Colts were favorites to win the division. They were projected in the Sport’s Illustrated NFL Preview to finish 10-6.
A player of Luck’s magnitude can affect the entire betting market regarding future bets. I would anticipate any bet made on his performance will be refunded. Any wager based on the team would be subject to the discretion of the operator. If you have the Colts under 9 wins you would not want to change that bet now. If you have Indy over 9 you feel like you have already lost that wager.
Luck leaving the game prematurely isn’t just the result of his injuries. It seems to be a loss of desire to no longer play football. In his press conference he stated he was stuck in this constant cycle of rehab. While he was named the NFL Comeback player of the year in 2018, this offseason was not what he or the Colts anticipated.
Jacoby Brissett is number 2 on the depth chart. He is more prepared than many would expect but will not produce Luck type numbers. He will extend drives with his legs. He did play with the Patriots, so he is accustomed to winning situations. They could still win 8 games and based on his progression contend for the division.
This major development has sports book operators scrambling better than Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton. Some will react aggressively and move the numbers regarding point spread in the game against the Chargers and the win total for the season substantially
The AFC South is not an overpowering division. If the Colts win total decreases to 8, they would be in a dog fight with the Texans and Titans. I was not that high on the Colts before this announcement. I would lower their over/under total from 9.5 to 7.5 to gauge what comes in. If one side is getting a larger proportion that the other, I would move my number accordingly. The line against the Chargers should move to 7. A double digit of 10 or more would be extreme and give value to Indy.
My next NFL Preview will look at the NFL NFC South. Look for it on Wednesday.
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