Margin of Victory
It used to seem every NFL game ended with a margin of three or seven points or was a blowout. Then someone came up with the wonderful idea of a two-point conversion following a touchdown and then someone else decided the one-point PAT was too easy and moved it back like it was a three-point shot or something without increasing the point production. Who does that?
Now, the final margin is up in the air until the Final Gun -- and sometimes beyond. So maybe we can use that information for good and not evil.
At least one place offers a Prop on whether the game will end with an exact margin of three points. The Yes is +350 and the No is -500.
Only one of the first 35 Super Bowls ended with a three-point margin (V), but then it happened five times in 12 years. The margins over the last five SBs have been: 31, 4, 14, 6 and 8. That makes just six of 52 Supes decided by exactly a field goal.
Only 44 of the 256 regular season games played this season -- and just one of the 10 postseason games -- fell right on the number.
Laying 5-1 may seem like a lot and if the game goes into overtime you’re screwed, but we feel strong enough with the way the game is played and coached these days that it is worth a small wager.
Pick: Final Margin to Not be 3 points (-500)