Happy New Year, sports betting family. I hope that your 2026 is off to a fantastic start. Our college football bowl season has started off red hot, as we're currently 9-5 for a profit of +8.63 units.
In this betting preview, we'll dive into the ins and outs of the CFP Semifinals game between Miami and Ole Miss. It'll be interesting to see how the Canes handle an SEC powerhouse like the Rebels.
Good luck and enjoy the game! I've got a best bet on this game below that'll hopefully build your bankroll. Let's get into the details.
The promotional offer is valid between 1/5/2026 at 12:00 AM Eastern Time (ET) and 1/25/2026 at 11:59 PM ET (the “Promotional Period”). Must be physically located in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, ME, MI, MO, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WY or WV (each an “Eligible Jurisdiction” or, collectively, the “Eligible Jurisdictions”). Must be 21+ years of age or older (18+ if in DC/KY/NH/WY). New customers only. Any customer who is found to be ineligible to play on DraftKings (i.e., by way of self-exclusion from gambling, restriction due to employment, or otherwise) may not participate in this Promotion and immediately forfeits any bonus rewards which have been awarded under this Promotion. Customers who have previously redeemed a pre-launch offer in a new jurisdiction are ineligible for this Promotion.
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Miami -3 immediately after Ole Miss defeated Georgia on New Year's Day. A ton of sharp money has come in on the Hurricanes, so much so that the line is now sitting at Miami -3.5 at the time of this writing. According to multiple sources, only around 50% of the tickets have been on Miami as of Monday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a small hunger for the Over in the market so far. The line opened at 51, and most shops are now offering 52 or 52.5. Shop around for the best price because 51 and 52 are both key numbers when playing totals.
Miami's defense put on a clinic against Ohio State, and that was the main reason they upset the Buckeyes as nearly a double-digit underdog. Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain were absolute wrecking balls along the defensive line, so Pete Golding better have a good plan to keep them under wraps.
Canes QB Carson Beck makes some frustrating decisions at times, but he's got lots of big game experience, and he looked calm as a cucumber against the Buckeyes on New Year's Eve. Look for Beck to take the easy checkdowns to RB Mark Fletcher and WR Malachi Toney early and often in this game.
Back to Miami's defense, they rank 7th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in yards per rush allowed. Ole Miss could have a tough time running the ball in this one, so the Rebels may have to try to attack Miami's secondary. That said, Miami ranks 16th in yards per pass allowed, so that route won't be easy either.
Trinidad Chambliss has gone from relative obscurity to the toast of the town in Oxford, Mississippi. The 6'1" senior was the backup QB to start the year, but he took over in Week 3 and never looked back. Chambliss is a true dual-threat QB who has the ability to take over a game.
Chambliss loves to spread the ball around, but his favorite target has been Harrison Wallace III, who leads the team with 894 receiving yards and 4 TDs this season. Chambliss also gets a lot of help from RB Kewan Lacy, who has run for 1464 yards and 23 TDS (23? Holy Cow!).
It's pretty impressive how much Pete Golding has improved the Ole Miss defense. The Rebels have historically struggled on that side of the ball, but now they rank a very respectable 27th in yards per pass allowed.
MIA vs MISS: 7:30 PM ET on January 8
We've made some nice coin with this Hurricanes team all year long, including last week's HUGE upset over Ohio State. There's no reason to jump off the Miami train, especially with how well Mario Cristobal has his team playing on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Ole Miss is used to facing good defenses, but I think they'll have a tough time blocking Akheem Mesidor, who leads Miami with 10.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. This team is an absolute beast, to say the least!
Miami has played a tougher schedule than Ole Miss (15th vs 37th according to Sagarin). The Canes should also enjoy a huge edge in red zone offense and defense. Miami's O ranks 21st in the red zone, while Ole Miss's D ranks a paltry 117th. Let's lay the small number with the U. Go Canes, and good luck!
Trends I Love:
MIAMI is a perfect 5-0 ATS vs Ranked Teams
MIAMI is 5-1 ATS in Non-Conference Games