Happy New Year, sports betting family. I hope all of you are enjoying this beautiful time of the year with friends and family. Our college football bowl season has started off red hot, as we're currently 7-2.
In this betting preview, we'll dive into the ins and outs of the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on Wednesday, December 31. It'll be interesting to see how Michigan handles an SEC team like Texas.
Good luck and enjoy the game! I've got a best bet on this game below that'll hopefully build your bankroll. Let's get into the details.
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Online sportsbooks opened this line at Texas -4.5 back when bowl game lines were released. A ton of sharp money has come in on the Longhorns, so much so that the line is now sitting at Texas -7 at the time of this writing. According to multiple sources, around 70% of the tickets have been on Texas as of Tuesday morning.
As for the game total, there's been a huge appetite for the Over in the market so far. The line opened at 46.5, and most shops are now offering 48.5. BetMGM currently has the best price on the Over, as they're dealing 48.5 with a reduced -102 price.
The Sherrone Moore scandal has rocked this Wolverines program to its core. However, interim coach Biff Poggi is the perfect guy to help these guys weather the storm. It also doesn't hurt that star RB Jordan Marshall calls this a "player-led team."
QB Bryce Underwood had a decent freshman campaign, as he threw for 2229 yards and 9 TDs to go along with 6 INTs. The highly touted signal caller also found the end zone 5 times with his legs. I love that Michigan ranked 7th this year in yards per rush.
Michigan's defense has been stout all year long, as they rank 15th in yards per play allowed and 14th in yards per rush allowed. Derrick Moore leads the team with 10 sacks, but he has chosen to opt out of this one. LB Jimmy Rolder leads Big Blue in tackles with 69.
By my last count, eight players from Texas hit the transfer portal and will not play in the Citrus Bowl. The biggest loss will be star RB Quintrevion Wisner, who led the team in rushing yardage (597) this season. Even still, Arch Manning and Ryan Wingo should be able to provide some juice for the offense in this spot.
Manning was heavily criticized early in the season, but he really settled down and came into his own, especially in Texas's huge upset of Texas A&M to end the year. The 6'4" sophomore was responsible for 32 total TDs in his first season as the starting QB of the Horns.
Texas's defense was very similar to Michigan's this year. The Longhorns were stingy against the run (11th in yards per rush allowed) and rushed the passer very effectively (21st in sack rate). Colin Simmons leads the team with 11 sacks, and it looks like he will suit up for this game.
MI vs TEX: 3:00 PM ET on December 31
I played this at +8.5 earlier in the week, but anything at +7 or better is just fine and dandy with me. A lot of folks were expecting a ton of opt-outs from Big Blue here because of the Sherrone Moore scandal. However, it looks like only 3 guys are sitting this one out.
This line opened Texas -4.5, which is close to what my true power rating is for this matchup. The Longhorns will be missing a ton of guys from their suffocating defense, so Bryce Underwood should be able to find some success with both his arm and his legs.
The Horns have plenty of athletes, but this Michigan D is the real deal. Arch Manning will make his fair share of plays, but this number is simply too high. I played Michigan plus the points for 2 units, and I'm sprinkling the moneyline for 0.2 units at +255 over at Caesars. Good luck, sports betting family!