Happy Bowl Season, sports betting amigos. The College Football Playoff is finally set after the committee indulged in its annual tradition of creating tons of controversy. That being said, the sport of college football has never been more popular.
While most folks are only zeroing in on the playoff games, I've been hunting for value wherever I can find it. I've found some nice edges on December 31st's ReliaQuest Bowl, where Iowa will do battle with Vanderbilt. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a sensational battle down in Tampa, Florida. Let's get into the ins and outs of this matchup below!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Vanderbilt -4 on the look-ahead line on Sunday afternoon after the bowl games were finalized. Surprisingly, the current number is now Vanderbilt -6 at most shops. It looks like the sharp money is thinking that the Commodores notch yet another victory to add to their best season in school history.
As for the game total, there's been no major moves to report on so far. The line opened at 49.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is still dealing that same number. I'm not expecting any major line movement on this total, unless there are some unlikely opt-outs.
Much was made of the Hawkeyes' lack of offensive prowess last season, but things really did improve for them in 2025. Iowa ranked 60th in the nation in points per game, as they put up nearly 29 points per contest. Mark Gronowski came over from South Dakota State and threw 8 TDs, ran for 15 TDs, and even hauled in a TD reception.
As good as Gronowski has been, he didn't improve the passing game as much as Hawkeye fans had hoped. That being said, the Iowa running game is no joke. A bruising offensive line has helped RBs Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson average more than 5 yards per carry this year.
Iowa's defense continues to be the main strength of the team. I have the Hawkeyes rated as the 7th-best defense in the country, and it's easy to see why. The secondary is fantastic (8th in yards per pass allowed), and Zach Lutmer leads that group with 3 INTs.
Diego Pavia may be cocky and brash, but the Vandy QB backs it up by making stellar plays on the field. The New Mexico State transfer has helped Clark Lea turn this Commodores program into a legitimate contender. Pavia is a finalist for the Heisman after throwing for 3192 yards and 27 TDs this season. He's also found the end zone 9 times with his legs.
Vandy's running game has been amazing all season long, as they rank 4th in yards per rush (5.81) and tied for 6th in rushing TDs (34). When they do have to throw the ball, Pavia loves to dial up his old NMSU teammate Eli Stowers, who leads the squad with 769 receiving yards.
The Commodore defense has improved by leaps and bounds this season. They finally figured out how to stop the run, and they rank a respectable 55th in yards per pass allowed. The key question is how Vandy will hold up against Iowa's very large O-line.
Iowa vs Vandy: Noon ET on December 31 (ESPN) (ReliaQuest Bowl)
I'm going to grab this +6.5 because I don't think we'll see a +7. Most of the market-making books offshore are locked in the +5.5 to +6 range. The Hawkeyes opened as a 4-point dog on Sunday, but everybody and their brother was waiting to bet on Diego Pavia one more time.
I respect the heck out of Pavia, but I'm not so sure Vandy should be laying almost a full TD to a stingy defense like Iowa on a neutral field. I made the Commodores a 4-point favorite and could easily see this being a field goal game either way. As good as Pavia is, this will be the best defense he's seen all season long.
Iowa shouldn't have any trouble shutting down the Vandy run game. The 'Dores run a lot of inside zone and pull lead, and the Hawkeyes rate very well against those rush concepts. Give me the points with an old-school guy like Kirk Ferentz, and don't be surprised if his special teams come up with a big play in this New Year's Eve thriller. Go Hawks!
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